Japan Population Decline Simulator

Ehime愛媛県

Tobe 砥部町

Data last updated:

Tobe, Ehime, Japan has a population of 19,623 (2025 national census). IPSS projections estimate 18,365 by 2030 and 13,592 by 2050 (a decrease of about 33.6% from 2020), with the share of residents aged 65+ rising from 34.3% in 2020 to 47.3%.Sources: Japan Census (Statistics Bureau), IPSS Regional Population Projections (2023)

2025

(Census)

19,623

2030

(Projection)

18,365

▼ -10.3%

2040

(Projection)

16,008

▼ -21.8%

2050

(Projection)

13,592

▼ -33.6%

Change vs. 2020 census

Elderly Rate (65+): 2020 34.3%→2050 47.3%

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Data Sources

  • Portal Site of Official Statistics of Japan (e-Stat)(https://www.e-stat.go.jp/)
  • National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), Regional Population Projections (2023 ed.)

* This service uses the e-Stat API but its content is not guaranteed by the Japanese government.

Tobe Population Table (1980–2050)

Population by year: national census results (restated to current municipal boundaries) and IPSS (2023) projections based on the 2020 census.

YearPopulationvs 2020Type
198017,958▼ -12.3%Census
198519,339▼ -5.6%Census
199020,802▲ +1.6%Census
199521,705▲ +6.0%Census
200022,075▲ +7.8%Census
200522,424▲ +9.5%Census
201021,981▲ +7.3%Census
201521,239▲ +3.7%Census
202020,480—Census
202519,623▼ -4.2%Census
203018,365▼ -10.3%Projection
203517,204▼ -16.0%Projection
204016,008▼ -21.8%Projection
204514,778▼ -27.8%Projection
205013,592▼ -33.6%Projection

About Tobe

Overview

Tobe (砥部町) is a municipality in Ehime, Japan, with a population of 19,623 as of 2025.

Population Projection of Tobe

According to projections by Japan's National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), Tobe's population is expected to reach 18,365 by 2030 (-10.3%), 16,008 by 2040 (-21.8%), and 13,592 by 2050 (-33.6%). A significant population decline is projected over the next three decades.

Aging Rate of Tobe

The aging rate (percentage of residents aged 65 and over) is 34.3% as of 2020 and is projected to rise to 47.3% by 2050. Over 40% of residents will be elderly, significantly affecting healthcare and social services needs.

National Comparison

Tobe's population decline rate exceeds the national average.

National and Prefectural Rank

  • Population decline rate: Ranked #939 out of 1903 municipalities nationwide.
  • Aging rate in 2050: Ranked #735 out of 1903 nationwide.
  • Population size: Ranked #1085 out of 1917 nationwide.
  • Related: National rankings / All municipalities in Ehime

Earnings in Ehime (愛媛県): Average salary in Ehime (愛媛県) by age, gender and company sizejpsalary / MHLW Basic Survey on Wage Structure

Frequently Asked Questions

Q.What is the current population of Tobe, Ehime?
A.According to the 2025 national census, Tobe has a population of 19,623.
Q.What is the population of Tobe in 2026?
A.Tobe's population in 2026 is estimated at approximately 19,371. This is an interpolated reference value between the 2025 census (19,623) and the IPSS projection for 2030 (18,365).
Q.What is the projected population of Tobe in the future?
A.According to IPSS projections, Tobe's population is expected to be 18,365 in 2030, 16,008 in 2040, and 13,592 in 2050.
Q.What is the population decline rate of Tobe?
A.Over the 30 years from 2020 to 2050, Tobe's population is projected to change by -33.6%. The 10-year change is -10.3% and the 20-year change is -21.8%.
Q.Why is the population of Tobe declining?
A.Nationwide, Japan's population decline is driven by natural decrease (deaths exceeding births) and, in regional municipalities, by net out-migration of young people to major metropolitan areas. In Tobe, the share of residents aged 65+ is projected to rise from 34.3% to 47.3% by 2050, which further accelerates natural decrease.
Q.What is the aging rate of Tobe?
A.Tobe's aging rate (percentage aged 65 and over) is 34.3% as of 2020, projected to rise to 47.3% by 2050.
Q.Where does this population data come from?
A.Historical data is sourced from Japan's national census via the e-Stat API (Statistics Bureau of Japan). Future projections are from the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS) "Regional Population Projections 2023".
Q.Is the data up to date?
A.Historical data uses national census results through 2025. Future projections use the IPSS 2023 edition, which is based on the 2020 census.

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