日本人口减少模拟器

Nara奈良県

Tenkawa 天川村

Data last updated:

Tenkawa, Nara, Japan has a population of 1,026 (2025 national census). IPSS projections estimate 894 by 2030 and 523 by 2050 (a decrease of about 55.5% from 2020), with the share of residents aged 65+ rising from 50.9% in 2020 to 47.6%.Sources: Japan Census (Statistics Bureau), IPSS Regional Population Projections (2023)

2025年

(实际)

1,026人

2030年

(预测)

894人

▼ -24.0%

2040年

(预测)

690人

▼ -41.3%

2050年

(预测)

523人

▼ -55.5%

Change vs. 2020 census

老龄化率(65岁以上): 2020年 50.9%→2050年 47.6%

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岁

Nara (奈良県)的其他市区町村

数据来源

  • 日本政府统计综合窗口(e-Stat)(https://www.e-stat.go.jp/)
  • 国立社会保障・人口问题研究所「日本地区别未来推计人口(令和5年推计)」

※本服务使用e-Stat的API功能,但服务内容不受日本政府保证。

Tenkawa Population Table (1980–2050)

Population by year: national census results (restated to current municipal boundaries) and IPSS (2023) projections based on the 2020 census.

YearPopulationvs 2020Type
19803,207▲ +172.7%Census
19852,731▲ +132.2%Census
19902,519▲ +114.2%Census
19952,310▲ +96.4%Census
20002,104▲ +78.9%Census
20051,800▲ +53.1%Census
20101,572▲ +33.7%Census
20151,354▲ +15.1%Census
20201,176—Census
20251,026▼ -12.8%Census
2030894▼ -24.0%Projection
2035785▼ -33.2%Projection
2040690▼ -41.3%Projection
2045596▼ -49.3%Projection
2050523▼ -55.5%Projection

About Tenkawa

Overview

Tenkawa (天川村) is a municipality in Nara, Japan, with a population of 1,026 as of 2025.

Population Projection of Tenkawa

According to projections by Japan's National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), Tenkawa's population is expected to reach 894 by 2030 (-24.0%), 690 by 2040 (-41.3%), and 523 by 2050 (-55.5%). The town is projected to lose more than half its population over 30 years.

Aging Rate of Tenkawa

The aging rate (percentage of residents aged 65 and over) is 50.9% as of 2020 and is projected to rise to 47.6% by 2050. Over 40% of residents will be elderly, significantly affecting healthcare and social services needs.

National Comparison

Tenkawa is experiencing one of the faster rates of population decline in Japan.

National and Prefectural Rank

  • Population decline rate: Ranked #157 out of 1903 municipalities nationwide.
  • Aging rate in 2050: Ranked #713 out of 1903 nationwide.
  • Population size: Ranked #1872 out of 1917 nationwide.
  • Related: National rankings / All municipalities in Nara

Nara (奈良県)的收入水平: Nara (奈良県)的平均年收入(按年龄、性别、企业规模)jpsalary / 厚生劳动省 工资结构基本统计调查

Frequently Asked Questions

Q.What is the current population of Tenkawa, Nara?
A.According to the 2025 national census, Tenkawa has a population of 1,026.
Q.What is the population of Tenkawa in 2026?
A.Tenkawa's population in 2026 is estimated at approximately 1,000. This is an interpolated reference value between the 2025 census (1,026) and the IPSS projection for 2030 (894).
Q.What is the projected population of Tenkawa in the future?
A.According to IPSS projections, Tenkawa's population is expected to be 894 in 2030, 690 in 2040, and 523 in 2050.
Q.What is the population decline rate of Tenkawa?
A.Over the 30 years from 2020 to 2050, Tenkawa's population is projected to change by -55.5%. The 10-year change is -24.0% and the 20-year change is -41.3%.
Q.Why is the population of Tenkawa declining?
A.Nationwide, Japan's population decline is driven by natural decrease (deaths exceeding births) and, in regional municipalities, by net out-migration of young people to major metropolitan areas. In Tenkawa, the share of residents aged 65+ is projected to rise from 50.9% to 47.6% by 2050, which further accelerates natural decrease.
Q.What is the aging rate of Tenkawa?
A.Tenkawa's aging rate (percentage aged 65 and over) is 50.9% as of 2020, projected to rise to 47.6% by 2050.
Q.Where does this population data come from?
A.Historical data is sourced from Japan's national census via the e-Stat API (Statistics Bureau of Japan). Future projections are from the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS) "Regional Population Projections 2023".
Q.Is the data up to date?
A.Historical data uses national census results through 2025. Future projections use the IPSS 2023 edition, which is based on the 2020 census.

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