Japan Population Decline Simulator

Gunma群馬県

Tsumagoi 嬬恋村

Data last updated:

Tsumagoi, Gunma, Japan has a population of 8,164 (2025 national census). IPSS projections estimate 7,478 by 2030 and 4,968 by 2050 (a decrease of about 43.9% from 2020), with the share of residents aged 65+ rising from 37.2% in 2020 to 50.7%.Sources: Japan Census (Statistics Bureau), IPSS Regional Population Projections (2023)

2025

(Census)

8,164

2030

(Projection)

7,478

▼ -15.5%

2040

(Projection)

6,189

▼ -30.1%

2050

(Projection)

4,968

▼ -43.9%

Change vs. 2020 census

Elderly Rate (65+): 2020 37.2%→2050 50.7%

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Other municipalities in Gunma (群馬県)

Data Sources

  • Portal Site of Official Statistics of Japan (e-Stat)(https://www.e-stat.go.jp/)
  • National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), Regional Population Projections (2023 ed.)

* This service uses the e-Stat API but its content is not guaranteed by the Japanese government.

Tsumagoi Population Table (1980–2050)

Population by year: national census results (restated to current municipal boundaries) and IPSS (2023) projections based on the 2020 census.

YearPopulationvs 2020Type
198010,737▲ +21.3%Census
198511,056▲ +24.9%Census
199010,957▲ +23.8%Census
199511,135▲ +25.8%Census
200010,657▲ +20.4%Census
200510,858▲ +22.7%Census
201010,183▲ +15.1%Census
20159,780▲ +10.5%Census
20208,850—Census
20258,164▼ -7.8%Census
20307,478▼ -15.5%Projection
20356,834▼ -22.8%Projection
20406,189▼ -30.1%Projection
20455,567▼ -37.1%Projection
20504,968▼ -43.9%Projection

About Tsumagoi

Overview

Tsumagoi (嬬恋村) is a municipality in Gunma, Japan, with a population of 8,164 as of 2025.

Population Projection of Tsumagoi

According to projections by Japan's National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), Tsumagoi's population is expected to reach 7,478 by 2030 (-15.5%), 6,189 by 2040 (-30.1%), and 4,968 by 2050 (-43.9%). A significant population decline is projected over the next three decades.

Aging Rate of Tsumagoi

The aging rate (percentage of residents aged 65 and over) is 37.2% as of 2020 and is projected to rise to 50.7% by 2050. More than half of residents will be seniors, placing the town in the "marginal municipality" category.

National Comparison

Tsumagoi is experiencing one of the faster rates of population decline in Japan.

National and Prefectural Rank

  • Population decline rate: Ranked #569 out of 1903 municipalities nationwide.
  • Aging rate in 2050: Ranked #517 out of 1903 nationwide.
  • Population size: Ranked #1418 out of 1917 nationwide.
  • Related: National rankings / All municipalities in Gunma

Earnings in Gunma (群馬県): Average salary in Gunma (群馬県) by age, gender and company sizejpsalary / MHLW Basic Survey on Wage Structure

Frequently Asked Questions

Q.What is the current population of Tsumagoi, Gunma?
A.According to the 2025 national census, Tsumagoi has a population of 8,164.
Q.What is the population of Tsumagoi in 2026?
A.Tsumagoi's population in 2026 is estimated at approximately 8,027. This is an interpolated reference value between the 2025 census (8,164) and the IPSS projection for 2030 (7,478).
Q.What is the projected population of Tsumagoi in the future?
A.According to IPSS projections, Tsumagoi's population is expected to be 7,478 in 2030, 6,189 in 2040, and 4,968 in 2050.
Q.What is the population decline rate of Tsumagoi?
A.Over the 30 years from 2020 to 2050, Tsumagoi's population is projected to change by -43.9%. The 10-year change is -15.5% and the 20-year change is -30.1%.
Q.Why is the population of Tsumagoi declining?
A.Nationwide, Japan's population decline is driven by natural decrease (deaths exceeding births) and, in regional municipalities, by net out-migration of young people to major metropolitan areas. In Tsumagoi, the share of residents aged 65+ is projected to rise from 37.2% to 50.7% by 2050, which further accelerates natural decrease.
Q.What is the aging rate of Tsumagoi?
A.Tsumagoi's aging rate (percentage aged 65 and over) is 37.2% as of 2020, projected to rise to 50.7% by 2050.
Q.Where does this population data come from?
A.Historical data is sourced from Japan's national census via the e-Stat API (Statistics Bureau of Japan). Future projections are from the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS) "Regional Population Projections 2023".
Q.Is the data up to date?
A.Historical data uses national census results through 2025. Future projections use the IPSS 2023 edition, which is based on the 2020 census.

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