Japan Population Decline Simulator

Tokushima徳島県

Komatsushima 小松島市

Data last updated:

Komatsushima, Tokushima, Japan has a population of 33,896 (2025 national census). IPSS projections estimate 30,765 by 2030 and 20,786 by 2050 (a decrease of about 42.5% from 2020), with the share of residents aged 65+ rising from 35.0% in 2020 to 50.3%.Sources: Japan Census (Statistics Bureau), IPSS Regional Population Projections (2023)

2025

(Census)

33,896

2030

(Projection)

30,765

▼ -14.9%

2040

(Projection)

25,683

▼ -29.0%

2050

(Projection)

20,786

▼ -42.5%

Change vs. 2020 census

Elderly Rate (65+): 2020 35%→2050 50.3%

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Other municipalities in Tokushima (徳島県)

Data Sources

  • Portal Site of Official Statistics of Japan (e-Stat)(https://www.e-stat.go.jp/)
  • National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), Regional Population Projections (2023 ed.)

* This service uses the e-Stat API but its content is not guaranteed by the Japanese government.

Komatsushima Population Table (1980–2050)

Population by year: national census results (restated to current municipal boundaries) and IPSS (2023) projections based on the 2020 census.

YearPopulationvs 2020Type
198043,636▲ +20.7%Census
198543,998▲ +21.7%Census
199043,188▲ +19.5%Census
199543,349▲ +19.9%Census
200043,078▲ +19.2%Census
200542,115▲ +16.5%Census
201040,614▲ +12.4%Census
201538,755▲ +7.2%Census
202036,149—Census
202533,896▼ -6.2%Census
203030,765▼ -14.9%Projection
203528,219▼ -21.9%Projection
204025,683▼ -29.0%Projection
204523,163▼ -35.9%Projection
205020,786▼ -42.5%Projection

About Komatsushima

Overview

Komatsushima (小松島市) is a municipality in Tokushima, Japan, with a population of 33,896 as of 2025.

Population Projection of Komatsushima

According to projections by Japan's National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), Komatsushima's population is expected to reach 30,765 by 2030 (-14.9%), 25,683 by 2040 (-29.0%), and 20,786 by 2050 (-42.5%). A significant population decline is projected over the next three decades.

Aging Rate of Komatsushima

The aging rate (percentage of residents aged 65 and over) is 35.0% as of 2020 and is projected to rise to 50.3% by 2050. More than half of residents will be seniors, placing the town in the "marginal municipality" category.

National Comparison

Komatsushima is experiencing one of the faster rates of population decline in Japan.

National and Prefectural Rank

  • Population decline rate: Ranked #633 out of 1903 municipalities nationwide.
  • Aging rate in 2050: Ranked #544 out of 1903 nationwide.
  • Population size: Ranked #844 out of 1917 nationwide.
  • Related: National rankings / All municipalities in Tokushima

Earnings in Tokushima (徳島県): Average salary in Tokushima (徳島県) by age, gender and company sizejpsalary / MHLW Basic Survey on Wage Structure

Frequently Asked Questions

Q.What is the current population of Komatsushima, Tokushima?
A.According to the 2025 national census, Komatsushima has a population of 33,896.
Q.What is the population of Komatsushima in 2026?
A.Komatsushima's population in 2026 is estimated at approximately 33,270. This is an interpolated reference value between the 2025 census (33,896) and the IPSS projection for 2030 (30,765).
Q.What is the projected population of Komatsushima in the future?
A.According to IPSS projections, Komatsushima's population is expected to be 30,765 in 2030, 25,683 in 2040, and 20,786 in 2050.
Q.What is the population decline rate of Komatsushima?
A.Over the 30 years from 2020 to 2050, Komatsushima's population is projected to change by -42.5%. The 10-year change is -14.9% and the 20-year change is -29.0%.
Q.Why is the population of Komatsushima declining?
A.Nationwide, Japan's population decline is driven by natural decrease (deaths exceeding births) and, in regional municipalities, by net out-migration of young people to major metropolitan areas. In Komatsushima, the share of residents aged 65+ is projected to rise from 35.0% to 50.3% by 2050, which further accelerates natural decrease.
Q.What is the aging rate of Komatsushima?
A.Komatsushima's aging rate (percentage aged 65 and over) is 35.0% as of 2020, projected to rise to 50.3% by 2050.
Q.Where does this population data come from?
A.Historical data is sourced from Japan's national census via the e-Stat API (Statistics Bureau of Japan). Future projections are from the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS) "Regional Population Projections 2023".
Q.Is the data up to date?
A.Historical data uses national census results through 2025. Future projections use the IPSS 2023 edition, which is based on the 2020 census.

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