Japan Population Decline Simulator

Kagawa香川県

Tonoshou 土庄町

Data last updated:

Tonoshou, Kagawa, Japan has a population of 11,425 (2025 national census). IPSS projections estimate 10,524 by 2030 and 6,626 by 2050 (a decrease of about 48.4% from 2020), with the share of residents aged 65+ rising from 43.1% in 2020 to 54.0%.Sources: Japan Census (Statistics Bureau), IPSS Regional Population Projections (2023)

2025Census

11,425

2030Projection

10,524

▼ -18.1%

2040Projection

8,412

▼ -34.5%

2050Projection

6,626

▼ -48.4%

Change vs. 2020 census

Elderly Rate (65+): 2020 43.1%→2050 54%

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Other municipalities in Kagawa (香川県)

Data Sources

  • Portal Site of Official Statistics of Japan (e-Stat)(https://www.e-stat.go.jp/)
  • National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), Regional Population Projections (2023 ed.)

* This service uses the e-Stat API but its content is not guaranteed by the Japanese government.

Tonoshou Population Table (1980–2050)

Population by year: national census results (restated to current municipal boundaries) and IPSS (2023) projections based on the 2020 census.

YearPopulationvs 2020Type
198021,398▲ +66.6%Census
198520,752▲ +61.5%Census
199020,191▲ +57.2%Census
199519,074▲ +48.5%Census
200017,711▲ +37.9%Census
200516,411▲ +27.8%Census
201015,123▲ +17.7%Census
201514,002▲ +9.0%Census
202012,846—Census
202511,425▼ -11.1%Census
203010,524▼ -18.1%Projection
20359,450▼ -26.4%Projection
20408,412▼ -34.5%Projection
20457,473▼ -41.8%Projection
20506,626▼ -48.4%Projection

About Tonoshou

Overview

Tonoshou (土庄町) is a municipality in Kagawa, Japan, with a population of 11,425 as of 2025.

Population Projection of Tonoshou

According to projections by Japan's National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), Tonoshou's population is expected to reach 10,524 by 2030 (-18.1%), 8,412 by 2040 (-34.5%), and 6,626 by 2050 (-48.4%). A significant population decline is projected over the next three decades.

Aging Rate of Tonoshou

The aging rate (percentage of residents aged 65 and over) is 43.1% as of 2020 and is projected to rise to 54.0% by 2050. More than half of residents will be seniors, placing the town in the "marginal municipality" category.

National Comparison

Tonoshou is experiencing one of the faster rates of population decline in Japan.

National and Prefectural Rank

  • Population decline rate: Ranked #397 out of 1903 municipalities nationwide.
  • Aging rate in 2050: Ranked #327 out of 1903 nationwide.
  • Population size: Ranked #1300 out of 1917 nationwide.
  • Related: National rankings / All municipalities in Kagawa

Earnings in Kagawa (香川県): Average salary in Kagawa (香川県) by age, gender and company sizejpsalary / MHLW Basic Survey on Wage Structure

Frequently Asked Questions

Q.What is the current population of Tonoshou, Kagawa?
A.According to the 2025 national census, Tonoshou has a population of 11,425.
Q.What is the population of Tonoshou in 2026?
A.Tonoshou's population in 2026 is estimated at approximately 11,245. This is an interpolated reference value between the 2025 census (11,425) and the IPSS projection for 2030 (10,524).
Q.What is the projected population of Tonoshou in the future?
A.According to IPSS projections, Tonoshou's population is expected to be 10,524 in 2030, 8,412 in 2040, and 6,626 in 2050.
Q.What is the population decline rate of Tonoshou?
A.Over the 30 years from 2020 to 2050, Tonoshou's population is projected to change by -48.4%. The 10-year change is -18.1% and the 20-year change is -34.5%.
Q.Why is the population of Tonoshou declining?
A.Nationwide, Japan's population decline is driven by natural decrease (deaths exceeding births) and, in regional municipalities, by net out-migration of young people to major metropolitan areas. In Tonoshou, the share of residents aged 65+ is projected to rise from 43.1% to 54.0% by 2050, which further accelerates natural decrease.
Q.What is the aging rate of Tonoshou?
A.Tonoshou's aging rate (percentage aged 65 and over) is 43.1% as of 2020, projected to rise to 54.0% by 2050.
Q.Where does this population data come from?
A.Historical data is sourced from Japan's national census via the e-Stat API (Statistics Bureau of Japan). Future projections are from the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS) "Regional Population Projections 2023".
Q.Is the data up to date?
A.Historical data uses national census results through 2025. Future projections use the IPSS 2023 edition, which is based on the 2020 census.

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