Japan Population Decline Simulator

Niigata新潟県

Shibata 新発田市

Data last updated:

Shibata, Niigata, Japan has a population of 89,570 (2025 national census). IPSS projections estimate 85,041 by 2030 and 65,061 by 2050 (a decrease of about 31.5% from 2020), with the share of residents aged 65+ rising from 32.4% in 2020 to 42.9%.Sources: Japan Census (Statistics Bureau), IPSS Regional Population Projections (2023)

2025

(Census)

89,570

2030

(Projection)

85,041

▼ -10.4%

2040

(Projection)

75,114

▼ -20.9%

2050

(Projection)

65,061

▼ -31.5%

Change vs. 2020 census

Elderly Rate (65+): 2020 32.4%→2050 42.9%

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Data Sources

  • Portal Site of Official Statistics of Japan (e-Stat)(https://www.e-stat.go.jp/)
  • National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), Regional Population Projections (2023 ed.)

* This service uses the e-Stat API but its content is not guaranteed by the Japanese government.

Shibata Population Table (1980–2050)

Population by year: national census results (restated to current municipal boundaries) and IPSS (2023) projections based on the 2020 census.

YearPopulationvs 2020Type
1980102,134▲ +7.6%Census
1985103,552▲ +9.1%Census
1990104,499▲ +10.1%Census
1995106,563▲ +12.3%Census
2000106,016▲ +11.7%Census
2005104,634▲ +10.2%Census
2010101,202▲ +6.6%Census
201598,611▲ +3.9%Census
202094,927—Census
202589,570▼ -5.6%Census
203085,041▼ -10.4%Projection
203580,128▼ -15.6%Projection
204075,114▼ -20.9%Projection
204570,048▼ -26.2%Projection
205065,061▼ -31.5%Projection

About Shibata

Overview

Shibata (新発田市) is a municipality in Niigata, Japan, with a population of 89,570 as of 2025.

Population Projection of Shibata

According to projections by Japan's National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), Shibata's population is expected to reach 85,041 by 2030 (-10.4%), 75,114 by 2040 (-20.9%), and 65,061 by 2050 (-31.5%). A significant population decline is projected over the next three decades.

Aging Rate of Shibata

The aging rate (percentage of residents aged 65 and over) is 32.4% as of 2020 and is projected to rise to 42.9% by 2050. Over 40% of residents will be elderly, significantly affecting healthcare and social services needs.

National Comparison

Shibata's population decline rate exceeds the national average.

National and Prefectural Rank

  • Population decline rate: Ranked #1009 out of 1903 municipalities nationwide.
  • Aging rate in 2050: Ranked #1027 out of 1903 nationwide.
  • Population size: Ranked #454 out of 1917 nationwide.
  • Related: National rankings / All municipalities in Niigata

Earnings in Niigata (新潟県): Average salary in Niigata (新潟県) by age, gender and company sizejpsalary / MHLW Basic Survey on Wage Structure

Frequently Asked Questions

Q.What is the current population of Shibata, Niigata?
A.According to the 2025 national census, Shibata has a population of 89,570.
Q.What is the population of Shibata in 2026?
A.Shibata's population in 2026 is estimated at approximately 88,664. This is an interpolated reference value between the 2025 census (89,570) and the IPSS projection for 2030 (85,041).
Q.What is the projected population of Shibata in the future?
A.According to IPSS projections, Shibata's population is expected to be 85,041 in 2030, 75,114 in 2040, and 65,061 in 2050.
Q.What is the population decline rate of Shibata?
A.Over the 30 years from 2020 to 2050, Shibata's population is projected to change by -31.5%. The 10-year change is -10.4% and the 20-year change is -20.9%.
Q.Why is the population of Shibata declining?
A.Nationwide, Japan's population decline is driven by natural decrease (deaths exceeding births) and, in regional municipalities, by net out-migration of young people to major metropolitan areas. In Shibata, the share of residents aged 65+ is projected to rise from 32.4% to 42.9% by 2050, which further accelerates natural decrease.
Q.What is the aging rate of Shibata?
A.Shibata's aging rate (percentage aged 65 and over) is 32.4% as of 2020, projected to rise to 42.9% by 2050.
Q.Where does this population data come from?
A.Historical data is sourced from Japan's national census via the e-Stat API (Statistics Bureau of Japan). Future projections are from the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS) "Regional Population Projections 2023".
Q.Is the data up to date?
A.Historical data uses national census results through 2025. Future projections use the IPSS 2023 edition, which is based on the 2020 census.

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