Japan Population Decline Simulator

Niigata新潟県

Tsubame 燕市

Data last updated:

Tsubame, Niigata, Japan has a population of 73,706 (2025 national census). IPSS projections estimate 70,263 by 2030 and 54,136 by 2050 (a decrease of about 29.9% from 2020), with the share of residents aged 65+ rising from 31.2% in 2020 to 43.1%.Sources: Japan Census (Statistics Bureau), IPSS Regional Population Projections (2023)

2025

(Census)

73,706

2030

(Projection)

70,263

▼ -9.0%

2040

(Projection)

62,342

▼ -19.2%

2050

(Projection)

54,136

▼ -29.9%

Change vs. 2020 census

Elderly Rate (65+): 2020 31.2%→2050 43.1%

Enter your age

See the population of 燕市 when you turn 50, 60, 70 and 80.

years old

Other municipalities in Niigata (新潟県)

Data Sources

  • Portal Site of Official Statistics of Japan (e-Stat)(https://www.e-stat.go.jp/)
  • National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), Regional Population Projections (2023 ed.)

* This service uses the e-Stat API but its content is not guaranteed by the Japanese government.

Tsubame Population Table (1980–2050)

Population by year: national census results (restated to current municipal boundaries) and IPSS (2023) projections based on the 2020 census.

YearPopulationvs 2020Type
198082,984▲ +7.5%Census
198584,181▲ +9.0%Census
199083,377▲ +8.0%Census
199584,051▲ +8.9%Census
200084,297▲ +9.2%Census
200583,269▲ +7.9%Census
201081,876▲ +6.1%Census
201579,784▲ +3.3%Census
202077,201—Census
202573,706▼ -4.5%Census
203070,263▼ -9.0%Projection
203566,359▼ -14.0%Projection
204062,342▼ -19.2%Projection
204558,260▼ -24.5%Projection
205054,136▼ -29.9%Projection

About Tsubame

Overview

Tsubame (燕市) is a municipality in Niigata, Japan, with a population of 73,706 as of 2025.

Population Projection of Tsubame

According to projections by Japan's National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), Tsubame's population is expected to reach 70,263 by 2030 (-9.0%), 62,342 by 2040 (-19.2%), and 54,136 by 2050 (-29.9%). A significant population decline is projected over the next three decades.

Aging Rate of Tsubame

The aging rate (percentage of residents aged 65 and over) is 31.2% as of 2020 and is projected to rise to 43.1% by 2050. Over 40% of residents will be elderly, significantly affecting healthcare and social services needs.

National Comparison

Tsubame's population decline rate exceeds the national average.

National and Prefectural Rank

  • Population decline rate: Ranked #1061 out of 1903 municipalities nationwide.
  • Aging rate in 2050: Ranked #1015 out of 1903 nationwide.
  • Population size: Ranked #525 out of 1917 nationwide.
  • Related: National rankings / All municipalities in Niigata

Earnings in Niigata (新潟県): Average salary in Niigata (新潟県) by age, gender and company sizejpsalary / MHLW Basic Survey on Wage Structure

Frequently Asked Questions

Q.What is the current population of Tsubame, Niigata?
A.According to the 2025 national census, Tsubame has a population of 73,706.
Q.What is the population of Tsubame in 2026?
A.Tsubame's population in 2026 is estimated at approximately 73,017. This is an interpolated reference value between the 2025 census (73,706) and the IPSS projection for 2030 (70,263).
Q.What is the projected population of Tsubame in the future?
A.According to IPSS projections, Tsubame's population is expected to be 70,263 in 2030, 62,342 in 2040, and 54,136 in 2050.
Q.What is the population decline rate of Tsubame?
A.Over the 30 years from 2020 to 2050, Tsubame's population is projected to change by -29.9%. The 10-year change is -9.0% and the 20-year change is -19.2%.
Q.Why is the population of Tsubame declining?
A.Nationwide, Japan's population decline is driven by natural decrease (deaths exceeding births) and, in regional municipalities, by net out-migration of young people to major metropolitan areas. In Tsubame, the share of residents aged 65+ is projected to rise from 31.2% to 43.1% by 2050, which further accelerates natural decrease.
Q.What is the aging rate of Tsubame?
A.Tsubame's aging rate (percentage aged 65 and over) is 31.2% as of 2020, projected to rise to 43.1% by 2050.
Q.Where does this population data come from?
A.Historical data is sourced from Japan's national census via the e-Stat API (Statistics Bureau of Japan). Future projections are from the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS) "Regional Population Projections 2023".
Q.Is the data up to date?
A.Historical data uses national census results through 2025. Future projections use the IPSS 2023 edition, which is based on the 2020 census.

Similar-Sized Municipalities in Niigata

Municipalities with Similar Trends

Share this page