Japan Population Decline Simulator

Hyogo兵庫県

Sumoto 洲本市

Data last updated:

Sumoto, Hyogo, Japan has a population of 38,556 (2025 national census). IPSS projections estimate 35,308 by 2030 and 23,759 by 2050 (a decrease of about 42.4% from 2020), with the share of residents aged 65+ rising from 37.1% in 2020 to 50.7%.Sources: Japan Census (Statistics Bureau), IPSS Regional Population Projections (2023)

2025

(Census)

38,556

2030

(Projection)

35,308

▼ -14.4%

2040

(Projection)

29,437

▼ -28.6%

2050

(Projection)

23,759

▼ -42.4%

Change vs. 2020 census

Elderly Rate (65+): 2020 37.1%→2050 50.7%

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Other municipalities in Hyogo (兵庫県)

Data Sources

  • Portal Site of Official Statistics of Japan (e-Stat)(https://www.e-stat.go.jp/)
  • National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), Regional Population Projections (2023 ed.)

* This service uses the e-Stat API but its content is not guaranteed by the Japanese government.

Sumoto Population Table (1980–2050)

Population by year: national census results (restated to current municipal boundaries) and IPSS (2023) projections based on the 2020 census.

YearPopulationvs 2020Type
198054,826▲ +33.0%Census
198555,048▲ +33.5%Census
199054,049▲ +31.1%Census
199552,839▲ +28.1%Census
200052,248▲ +26.7%Census
200550,030▲ +21.3%Census
201047,254▲ +14.6%Census
201544,258▲ +7.3%Census
202041,236—Census
202538,556▼ -6.5%Census
203035,308▼ -14.4%Projection
203532,389▼ -21.5%Projection
204029,437▼ -28.6%Projection
204526,550▼ -35.6%Projection
205023,759▼ -42.4%Projection

About Sumoto

Overview

Sumoto (洲本市) is a municipality in Hyogo, Japan, with a population of 38,556 as of 2025.

Population Projection of Sumoto

According to projections by Japan's National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), Sumoto's population is expected to reach 35,308 by 2030 (-14.4%), 29,437 by 2040 (-28.6%), and 23,759 by 2050 (-42.4%). A significant population decline is projected over the next three decades.

Aging Rate of Sumoto

The aging rate (percentage of residents aged 65 and over) is 37.1% as of 2020 and is projected to rise to 50.7% by 2050. More than half of residents will be seniors, placing the town in the "marginal municipality" category.

National Comparison

Sumoto is experiencing one of the faster rates of population decline in Japan.

National and Prefectural Rank

  • Population decline rate: Ranked #637 out of 1903 municipalities nationwide.
  • Aging rate in 2050: Ranked #518 out of 1903 nationwide.
  • Population size: Ranked #792 out of 1917 nationwide.
  • Related: National rankings / All municipalities in Hyogo

Earnings in Hyogo (兵庫県): Average salary in Hyogo (兵庫県) by age, gender and company sizejpsalary / MHLW Basic Survey on Wage Structure

Frequently Asked Questions

Q.What is the current population of Sumoto, Hyogo?
A.According to the 2025 national census, Sumoto has a population of 38,556.
Q.What is the population of Sumoto in 2026?
A.Sumoto's population in 2026 is estimated at approximately 37,906. This is an interpolated reference value between the 2025 census (38,556) and the IPSS projection for 2030 (35,308).
Q.What is the projected population of Sumoto in the future?
A.According to IPSS projections, Sumoto's population is expected to be 35,308 in 2030, 29,437 in 2040, and 23,759 in 2050.
Q.What is the population decline rate of Sumoto?
A.Over the 30 years from 2020 to 2050, Sumoto's population is projected to change by -42.4%. The 10-year change is -14.4% and the 20-year change is -28.6%.
Q.Why is the population of Sumoto declining?
A.Nationwide, Japan's population decline is driven by natural decrease (deaths exceeding births) and, in regional municipalities, by net out-migration of young people to major metropolitan areas. In Sumoto, the share of residents aged 65+ is projected to rise from 37.1% to 50.7% by 2050, which further accelerates natural decrease.
Q.What is the aging rate of Sumoto?
A.Sumoto's aging rate (percentage aged 65 and over) is 37.1% as of 2020, projected to rise to 50.7% by 2050.
Q.Where does this population data come from?
A.Historical data is sourced from Japan's national census via the e-Stat API (Statistics Bureau of Japan). Future projections are from the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS) "Regional Population Projections 2023".
Q.Is the data up to date?
A.Historical data uses national census results through 2025. Future projections use the IPSS 2023 edition, which is based on the 2020 census.

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