Japan Population Decline Simulator

Wakayama和歌山県

Arida 有田市

Data last updated:

Arida, Wakayama, Japan has a population of 23,024 (2025 national census). IPSS projections estimate 22,437 by 2030 and 14,597 by 2050 (a decrease of about 45.0% from 2020), with the share of residents aged 65+ rising from 35.2% in 2020 to 50.4%.Sources: Japan Census (Statistics Bureau), IPSS Regional Population Projections (2023)

2025

(Census)

23,024

2030

(Projection)

22,437

▼ -15.5%

2040

(Projection)

18,356

▼ -30.8%

2050

(Projection)

14,597

▼ -45.0%

Change vs. 2020 census

Elderly Rate (65+): 2020 35.2%→2050 50.4%

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Other municipalities in Wakayama (和歌山県)

Data Sources

  • Portal Site of Official Statistics of Japan (e-Stat)(https://www.e-stat.go.jp/)
  • National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), Regional Population Projections (2023 ed.)

* This service uses the e-Stat API but its content is not guaranteed by the Japanese government.

Arida Population Table (1980–2050)

Population by year: national census results (restated to current municipal boundaries) and IPSS (2023) projections based on the 2020 census.

YearPopulationvs 2020Type
198035,683▲ +34.5%Census
198535,401▲ +33.4%Census
199034,810▲ +31.2%Census
199534,283▲ +29.2%Census
200033,661▲ +26.8%Census
200532,143▲ +21.1%Census
201030,592▲ +15.3%Census
201528,470▲ +7.3%Census
202026,538—Census
202523,024▼ -13.2%Census
203022,437▼ -15.5%Projection
203520,373▼ -23.2%Projection
204018,356▼ -30.8%Projection
204516,425▼ -38.1%Projection
205014,597▼ -45.0%Projection

About Arida

Overview

Arida (有田市) is a municipality in Wakayama, Japan, with a population of 23,024 as of 2025.

Population Projection of Arida

According to projections by Japan's National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), Arida's population is expected to reach 22,437 by 2030 (-15.5%), 18,356 by 2040 (-30.8%), and 14,597 by 2050 (-45.0%). A significant population decline is projected over the next three decades.

Aging Rate of Arida

The aging rate (percentage of residents aged 65 and over) is 35.2% as of 2020 and is projected to rise to 50.4% by 2050. More than half of residents will be seniors, placing the town in the "marginal municipality" category.

National Comparison

Arida is experiencing one of the faster rates of population decline in Japan.

National and Prefectural Rank

  • Population decline rate: Ranked #530 out of 1903 municipalities nationwide.
  • Aging rate in 2050: Ranked #534 out of 1903 nationwide.
  • Population size: Ranked #1023 out of 1917 nationwide.
  • Related: National rankings / All municipalities in Wakayama

Earnings in Wakayama (和歌山県): Average salary in Wakayama (和歌山県) by age, gender and company sizejpsalary / MHLW Basic Survey on Wage Structure

Frequently Asked Questions

Q.What is the current population of Arida, Wakayama?
A.According to the 2025 national census, Arida has a population of 23,024.
Q.What is the population of Arida in 2026?
A.Arida's population in 2026 is estimated at approximately 22,907. This is an interpolated reference value between the 2025 census (23,024) and the IPSS projection for 2030 (22,437).
Q.What is the projected population of Arida in the future?
A.According to IPSS projections, Arida's population is expected to be 22,437 in 2030, 18,356 in 2040, and 14,597 in 2050.
Q.What is the population decline rate of Arida?
A.Over the 30 years from 2020 to 2050, Arida's population is projected to change by -45.0%. The 10-year change is -15.5% and the 20-year change is -30.8%.
Q.Why is the population of Arida declining?
A.Nationwide, Japan's population decline is driven by natural decrease (deaths exceeding births) and, in regional municipalities, by net out-migration of young people to major metropolitan areas. In Arida, the share of residents aged 65+ is projected to rise from 35.2% to 50.4% by 2050, which further accelerates natural decrease.
Q.What is the aging rate of Arida?
A.Arida's aging rate (percentage aged 65 and over) is 35.2% as of 2020, projected to rise to 50.4% by 2050.
Q.Where does this population data come from?
A.Historical data is sourced from Japan's national census via the e-Stat API (Statistics Bureau of Japan). Future projections are from the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS) "Regional Population Projections 2023".
Q.Is the data up to date?
A.Historical data uses national census results through 2025. Future projections use the IPSS 2023 edition, which is based on the 2020 census.

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