Growing Cities of Japan
While Japan's national population falls, a handful of municipalities are projected to grow through 2050. Most are central Tokyo wards, commuter suburbs, and a few regional cities with strong family-support policies or tech-industry hubs.
Tokyo's central wards keep growing
Chūō, Chiyoda, Minato, and parts of Shinjuku have grown steadily since the 2000s due to high-rise residential development and professional in-migration. Even under the national population contraction, these wards are projected to gain residents through 2050.
Suburban winners and regional exceptions
Nagareyama (Chiba), Nagakute (Aichi), Fukuoka City, and Tsukuba (Ibaraki) are notable examples of non-Tokyo municipalities projected to grow. Common factors: good train access to a major employer base, aggressive childcare policies, and newly-built residential stock.
What "growth" actually means in a shrinking country
In a country losing 300,000 people per year, local growth is zero-sum: one municipality's gain is another's loss. This is useful context for real estate decisions, retail site selection, and regional policy design.
Top 50 municipalities by projected population growth
| Rank | Municipality | Pop. (2025) | Change 2020–2050 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tokyo Chuuou | 181,841 | ▲ +24.7% |
| 2 | Chiba Nagareyama | 215,086 | ▲ +20.9% |
| 3 | Tokyo Minato | 272,478 | ▲ +20.0% |
| 4 | Tokyo Chiyoda | 66,270 | ▲ +19.7% |
| 5 | Okinawa Nakagusuku | 22,908 | ▲ +17.8% |
| 6 | Chiba Inzai | 110,339 | ▲ +16.8% |
| 7 | Tokyo Taitou | 228,046 | ▲ +15.7% |
| 8 | Saitama Midori | 132,357 | ▲ +13.2% |
| 9 | Tokyo Bunkyou | 249,800 | ▲ +13.1% |
| 10 | Ibaraki Tsukubamirai | 52,100 | ▲ +13.0% |
| 11 | Tokyo Koutou | 553,502 | ▲ +13.0% |
| 12 | Ibaraki Moriya | 70,199 | ▲ +11.4% |
| 13 | Saitama Namegawa | 19,911 | ▲ +11.0% |
| 14 | Okinawa Yaese | 32,668 | ▲ +11.0% |
| 15 | Osaka Nishi | 115,345 | ▲ +10.7% |
| 16 | Tokyo Shinagawa | 426,005 | ▲ +10.1% |
| 17 | Tokyo Shibuya | 238,826 | ▲ +9.6% |
| 18 | Kanagawa Nakahara | 269,570 | ▲ +9.6% |
| 19 | Saitama Yashio | 93,410 | ▲ +9.3% |
| 20 | Fukuoka Kasuya | 48,490 | ▲ +9.3% |
| 21 | Tokyo Sumida | 285,038 | ▲ +9.2% |
| 22 | Tokyo Toshima | 305,516 | ▲ +9.2% |
| 23 | Okinawa Yonabaru | 19,259 | ▲ +9.2% |
| 24 | Osaka Kita | 149,465 | ▲ +9.0% |
| 25 | Osaka Chuuou | 119,162 | ▲ +9.0% |
| 26 | Kanagawa Nishi | 108,145 | ▲ +8.9% |
| 27 | Tokyo Inagi | 95,120 | ▲ +8.6% |
| 28 | Osaka Fukushima | 84,205 | ▲ +8.6% |
| 29 | Fukuoka Fukutsu | 69,013 | ▲ +8.3% |
| 30 | Kanagawa Saiwai | 175,700 | ▲ +8.2% |
| 31 | Okinawa Ginoza | 6,279 | ▲ +8.1% |
| 32 | Aichi Nagakute | 63,461 | ▲ +7.3% |
| 33 | Fukuoka Hisayama | 9,246 | ▲ +7.1% |
| 34 | Saitama Toda | 139,232 | ▲ +7.0% |
| 35 | Kumamoto Kikuyou | 44,532 | ▲ +7.0% |
| 36 | Saitama Yoshikawa | 71,291 | ▲ +6.8% |
| 37 | Saitama Urawa | 169,446 | ▲ +6.4% |
| 38 | Tokyo Arakawa | 226,291 | ▲ +6.3% |
| 39 | Ibaraki Tsukuba | 268,832 | ▲ +6.0% |
| 40 | Saitama Oomiya | 125,285 | ▲ +6.0% |
| 41 | Osaka Tennouji | 87,701 | ▲ +6.0% |
| 42 | Tokyo Musashino | 150,528 | ▲ +5.8% |
| 43 | Yamanashi Shouwa | 21,786 | ▲ +5.4% |
| 44 | Kanagawa Kouhoku | 363,598 | ▲ +5.3% |
| 45 | Kanagawa Takatsu | 236,857 | ▲ +5.1% |
| 46 | Tokyo Nakano | 354,853 | ▲ +4.9% |
| 47 | Kanagawa Asao | 179,672 | ▲ +4.8% |
| 48 | Tokyo Suginami | 597,038 | ▲ +4.7% |
| 49 | Fukuoka Chuuou | 216,199 | ▲ +4.7% |
| 50 | Tokyo Setagaya | 954,737 | ▲ +4.6% |
By prefecture
- Hokkaido
- Aomori
- Iwate
- Miyagi
- Akita
- Yamagata
- Fukushima
- Ibaraki
- Tochigi
- Gunma
- Saitama
- Chiba
- Tokyo
- Kanagawa
- Niigata
- Toyama
- Ishikawa
- Fukui
- Yamanashi
- Nagano
- Gifu
- Shizuoka
- Aichi
- Mie
- Shiga
- Kyoto
- Osaka
- Hyogo
- Nara
- Wakayama
- Tottori
- Shimane
- Okayama
- Hiroshima
- Yamaguchi
- Tokushima
- Kagawa
- Ehime
- Kochi
- Fukuoka
- Saga
- Nagasaki
- Kumamoto
- Oita
- Miyazaki
- Kagoshima
- Okinawa
Source: National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), "Regional Population Projections for Japan (2023 revision)", and Japan's Statistics Bureau (e-Stat) national census data.