Japan Population Decline Simulator

Tokyo東京都

Machida 町田市

Data last updated:

Machida, Tokyo, Japan has a population of 420,385 (2025 national census). IPSS projections estimate 427,113 by 2030 and 406,456 by 2050 (a decrease of about 5.7% from 2020), with the share of residents aged 65+ rising from 27.6% in 2020 to 36.7%.Sources: Japan Census (Statistics Bureau), IPSS Regional Population Projections (2023)

2025Census

420,385

2030Projection

427,113

▼ -0.9%

2040Projection

417,122

▼ -3.2%

2050Projection

406,456

▼ -5.7%

Change vs. 2020 census

Elderly Rate (65+): 2020 27.6%→2050 36.7%

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Other municipalities in Tokyo (東京都)

Data Sources

  • Portal Site of Official Statistics of Japan (e-Stat)(https://www.e-stat.go.jp/)
  • National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), Regional Population Projections (2023 ed.)

* This service uses the e-Stat API but its content is not guaranteed by the Japanese government.

Machida Population Table (1980–2050)

Population by year: national census results (restated to current municipal boundaries) and IPSS (2023) projections based on the 2020 census.

YearPopulationvs 2020Type
1980295,405▼ -31.5%Census
1985321,188▼ -25.5%Census
1990349,050▼ -19.0%Census
1995360,525▼ -16.4%Census
2000377,494▼ -12.4%Census
2005405,534▼ -5.9%Census
2010426,987▼ -0.9%Census
2015432,348▲ +0.3%Census
2020431,079—Census
2025420,385▼ -2.5%Census
2030427,113▼ -0.9%Projection
2035422,245▼ -2.0%Projection
2040417,122▼ -3.2%Projection
2045411,871▼ -4.5%Projection
2050406,456▼ -5.7%Projection

About Machida

Overview

Machida (町田市) is a municipality in Tokyo, Japan, with a population of 420,385 as of 2025.

Population Projection of Machida

According to projections by Japan's National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), Machida's population is expected to reach 427,113 by 2030 (-0.9%), 417,122 by 2040 (-3.2%), and 406,456 by 2050 (-5.7%). A modest population change is expected.

Aging Rate of Machida

The aging rate (percentage of residents aged 65 and over) is 27.6% as of 2020 and is projected to rise to 36.7% by 2050. The aging rate will remain below the most severe Japanese averages.

National Comparison

Machida's demographic trajectory is similar to the national average.

National and Prefectural Rank

  • Population decline rate: Ranked #1705 out of 1903 municipalities nationwide.
  • Aging rate in 2050: Ranked #1501 out of 1903 nationwide.
  • Population size: Ranked #50 out of 1917 nationwide.
  • Related: National rankings / All municipalities in Tokyo

Earnings in Tokyo (東京都): Average salary in Tokyo (東京都) by age, gender and company sizejpsalary / MHLW Basic Survey on Wage Structure

Frequently Asked Questions

Q.What is the current population of Machida, Tokyo?
A.According to the 2025 national census, Machida has a population of 420,385.
Q.What is the population of Machida in 2026?
A.Machida's population in 2026 is estimated at approximately 421,731. This is an interpolated reference value between the 2025 census (420,385) and the IPSS projection for 2030 (427,113).
Q.What is the projected population of Machida in the future?
A.According to IPSS projections, Machida's population is expected to be 427,113 in 2030, 417,122 in 2040, and 406,456 in 2050.
Q.What is the population decline rate of Machida?
A.Over the 30 years from 2020 to 2050, Machida's population is projected to change by -5.7%. The 10-year change is -0.9% and the 20-year change is -3.2%.
Q.Why is the population of Machida declining?
A.Nationwide, Japan's population decline is driven by natural decrease (deaths exceeding births) and, in regional municipalities, by net out-migration of young people to major metropolitan areas. In Machida, the share of residents aged 65+ is projected to rise from 27.6% to 36.7% by 2050, which further accelerates natural decrease.
Q.What is the aging rate of Machida?
A.Machida's aging rate (percentage aged 65 and over) is 27.6% as of 2020, projected to rise to 36.7% by 2050.
Q.Where does this population data come from?
A.Historical data is sourced from Japan's national census via the e-Stat API (Statistics Bureau of Japan). Future projections are from the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS) "Regional Population Projections 2023".
Q.Is the data up to date?
A.Historical data uses national census results through 2025. Future projections use the IPSS 2023 edition, which is based on the 2020 census.

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