Japan Population Decline Simulator

Niigata新潟県

Kariwa 刈羽村

Data last updated:

Kariwa, Niigata, Japan has a population of 4,318 (2025 national census). IPSS projections estimate 4,060 by 2030 and 3,532 by 2050 (a decrease of about 19.4% from 2020), with the share of residents aged 65+ rising from 32.2% in 2020 to 35.6%.Sources: Japan Census (Statistics Bureau), IPSS Regional Population Projections (2023)

2025

(Census)

4,318

2030

(Projection)

4,060

▼ -7.3%

2040

(Projection)

3,786

▼ -13.6%

2050

(Projection)

3,532

▼ -19.4%

Change vs. 2020 census

Elderly Rate (65+): 2020 32.2%→2050 35.6%

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Data Sources

  • Portal Site of Official Statistics of Japan (e-Stat)(https://www.e-stat.go.jp/)
  • National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), Regional Population Projections (2023 ed.)

* This service uses the e-Stat API but its content is not guaranteed by the Japanese government.

Kariwa Population Table (1980–2050)

Population by year: national census results (restated to current municipal boundaries) and IPSS (2023) projections based on the 2020 census.

YearPopulationvs 2020Type
19805,346▲ +22.1%Census
19855,502▲ +25.6%Census
19905,522▲ +26.1%Census
19955,702▲ +30.2%Census
20005,028▲ +14.8%Census
20054,806▲ +9.7%Census
20104,800▲ +9.6%Census
20154,775▲ +9.0%Census
20204,380—Census
20254,318▼ -1.4%Census
20304,060▼ -7.3%Projection
20353,928▼ -10.3%Projection
20403,786▼ -13.6%Projection
20453,661▼ -16.4%Projection
20503,532▼ -19.4%Projection

About Kariwa

Overview

Kariwa (刈羽村) is a municipality in Niigata, Japan, with a population of 4,318 as of 2025.

Population Projection of Kariwa

According to projections by Japan's National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), Kariwa's population is expected to reach 4,060 by 2030 (-7.3%), 3,786 by 2040 (-13.6%), and 3,532 by 2050 (-19.4%). A modest population change is expected.

Aging Rate of Kariwa

The aging rate (percentage of residents aged 65 and over) is 32.2% as of 2020 and is projected to rise to 35.6% by 2050. The aging rate will remain below the most severe Japanese averages.

National Comparison

Kariwa's demographic trajectory is similar to the national average.

National and Prefectural Rank

  • Population decline rate: Ranked #1368 out of 1903 municipalities nationwide.
  • Aging rate in 2050: Ranked #1573 out of 1903 nationwide.
  • Population size: Ranked #1637 out of 1917 nationwide.
  • Related: National rankings / All municipalities in Niigata

Earnings in Niigata (新潟県): Average salary in Niigata (新潟県) by age, gender and company sizejpsalary / MHLW Basic Survey on Wage Structure

Frequently Asked Questions

Q.What is the current population of Kariwa, Niigata?
A.According to the 2025 national census, Kariwa has a population of 4,318.
Q.What is the population of Kariwa in 2026?
A.Kariwa's population in 2026 is estimated at approximately 4,266. This is an interpolated reference value between the 2025 census (4,318) and the IPSS projection for 2030 (4,060).
Q.What is the projected population of Kariwa in the future?
A.According to IPSS projections, Kariwa's population is expected to be 4,060 in 2030, 3,786 in 2040, and 3,532 in 2050.
Q.What is the population decline rate of Kariwa?
A.Over the 30 years from 2020 to 2050, Kariwa's population is projected to change by -19.4%. The 10-year change is -7.3% and the 20-year change is -13.6%.
Q.Why is the population of Kariwa declining?
A.Nationwide, Japan's population decline is driven by natural decrease (deaths exceeding births) and, in regional municipalities, by net out-migration of young people to major metropolitan areas. In Kariwa, the share of residents aged 65+ is projected to rise from 32.2% to 35.6% by 2050, which further accelerates natural decrease.
Q.What is the aging rate of Kariwa?
A.Kariwa's aging rate (percentage aged 65 and over) is 32.2% as of 2020, projected to rise to 35.6% by 2050.
Q.Where does this population data come from?
A.Historical data is sourced from Japan's national census via the e-Stat API (Statistics Bureau of Japan). Future projections are from the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS) "Regional Population Projections 2023".
Q.Is the data up to date?
A.Historical data uses national census results through 2025. Future projections use the IPSS 2023 edition, which is based on the 2020 census.

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