Japan Population Decline Simulator

Yamanashi山梨県

Uenohara 上野原市

Data last updated:

Uenohara, Yamanashi, Japan has a population of 20,864 (2025 national census). IPSS projections estimate 18,959 by 2030 and 11,762 by 2050 (a decrease of about 48.1% from 2020), with the share of residents aged 65+ rising from 36.5% in 2020 to 54.5%.Sources: Japan Census (Statistics Bureau), IPSS Regional Population Projections (2023)

2025

(Census)

20,864

2030

(Projection)

18,959

▼ -16.4%

2040

(Projection)

15,213

▼ -32.9%

2050

(Projection)

11,762

▼ -48.1%

Change vs. 2020 census

Elderly Rate (65+): 2020 36.5%→2050 54.5%

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Data Sources

  • Portal Site of Official Statistics of Japan (e-Stat)(https://www.e-stat.go.jp/)
  • National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), Regional Population Projections (2023 ed.)

* This service uses the e-Stat API but its content is not guaranteed by the Japanese government.

Uenohara Population Table (1980–2050)

Population by year: national census results (restated to current municipal boundaries) and IPSS (2023) projections based on the 2020 census.

YearPopulationvs 2020Type
198027,878▲ +23.0%Census
198527,772▲ +22.5%Census
199027,790▲ +22.6%Census
199530,248▲ +33.4%Census
200030,157▲ +33.0%Census
200528,986▲ +27.9%Census
201027,114▲ +19.6%Census
201524,805▲ +9.4%Census
202022,669—Census
202520,864▼ -8.0%Census
203018,959▼ -16.4%Projection
203517,098▼ -24.6%Projection
204015,213▼ -32.9%Projection
204513,414▼ -40.8%Projection
205011,762▼ -48.1%Projection

About Uenohara

Overview

Uenohara (上野原市) is a municipality in Yamanashi, Japan, with a population of 20,864 as of 2025.

Population Projection of Uenohara

According to projections by Japan's National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), Uenohara's population is expected to reach 18,959 by 2030 (-16.4%), 15,213 by 2040 (-32.9%), and 11,762 by 2050 (-48.1%). A significant population decline is projected over the next three decades.

Aging Rate of Uenohara

The aging rate (percentage of residents aged 65 and over) is 36.5% as of 2020 and is projected to rise to 54.5% by 2050. More than half of residents will be seniors, placing the town in the "marginal municipality" category.

National Comparison

Uenohara is experiencing one of the faster rates of population decline in Japan.

National and Prefectural Rank

  • Population decline rate: Ranked #405 out of 1903 municipalities nationwide.
  • Aging rate in 2050: Ranked #301 out of 1903 nationwide.
  • Population size: Ranked #1059 out of 1917 nationwide.
  • Related: National rankings / All municipalities in Yamanashi

Earnings in Yamanashi (山梨県): Average salary in Yamanashi (山梨県) by age, gender and company sizejpsalary / MHLW Basic Survey on Wage Structure

Frequently Asked Questions

Q.What is the current population of Uenohara, Yamanashi?
A.According to the 2025 national census, Uenohara has a population of 20,864.
Q.What is the population of Uenohara in 2026?
A.Uenohara's population in 2026 is estimated at approximately 20,483. This is an interpolated reference value between the 2025 census (20,864) and the IPSS projection for 2030 (18,959).
Q.What is the projected population of Uenohara in the future?
A.According to IPSS projections, Uenohara's population is expected to be 18,959 in 2030, 15,213 in 2040, and 11,762 in 2050.
Q.What is the population decline rate of Uenohara?
A.Over the 30 years from 2020 to 2050, Uenohara's population is projected to change by -48.1%. The 10-year change is -16.4% and the 20-year change is -32.9%.
Q.Why is the population of Uenohara declining?
A.Nationwide, Japan's population decline is driven by natural decrease (deaths exceeding births) and, in regional municipalities, by net out-migration of young people to major metropolitan areas. In Uenohara, the share of residents aged 65+ is projected to rise from 36.5% to 54.5% by 2050, which further accelerates natural decrease.
Q.What is the aging rate of Uenohara?
A.Uenohara's aging rate (percentage aged 65 and over) is 36.5% as of 2020, projected to rise to 54.5% by 2050.
Q.Where does this population data come from?
A.Historical data is sourced from Japan's national census via the e-Stat API (Statistics Bureau of Japan). Future projections are from the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS) "Regional Population Projections 2023".
Q.Is the data up to date?
A.Historical data uses national census results through 2025. Future projections use the IPSS 2023 edition, which is based on the 2020 census.

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