Japan Population Decline Simulator

Yamaguchi山口県

Shimonoseki 下関市

Data last updated:

Shimonoseki, Yamaguchi, Japan has a population of 237,611 (2025 national census). IPSS projections estimate 222,393 by 2030 and 164,753 by 2050 (a decrease of about 35.4% from 2020), with the share of residents aged 65+ rising from 35.8% in 2020 to 44.0%.Sources: Japan Census (Statistics Bureau), IPSS Regional Population Projections (2023)

2025

(Census)

237,611

2030

(Projection)

222,393

▼ -12.8%

2040

(Projection)

192,227

▼ -24.6%

2050

(Projection)

164,753

▼ -35.4%

Change vs. 2020 census

Elderly Rate (65+): 2020 35.8%→2050 44%

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Other municipalities in Yamaguchi (山口県)

Data Sources

  • Portal Site of Official Statistics of Japan (e-Stat)(https://www.e-stat.go.jp/)
  • National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), Regional Population Projections (2023 ed.)

* This service uses the e-Stat API but its content is not guaranteed by the Japanese government.

Shimonoseki Population Table (1980–2050)

Population by year: national census results (restated to current municipal boundaries) and IPSS (2023) projections based on the 2020 census.

YearPopulationvs 2020Type
1980325,478▲ +27.6%Census
1985324,585▲ +27.3%Census
1990315,643▲ +23.8%Census
1995310,717▲ +21.8%Census
2000301,097▲ +18.1%Census
2005290,693▲ +14.0%Census
2010280,947▲ +10.2%Census
2015268,517▲ +5.3%Census
2020255,051—Census
2025237,611▼ -6.8%Census
2030222,393▼ -12.8%Projection
2035207,161▼ -18.8%Projection
2040192,227▼ -24.6%Projection
2045177,938▼ -30.2%Projection
2050164,753▼ -35.4%Projection

About Shimonoseki

Overview

Shimonoseki (下関市) is a municipality in Yamaguchi, Japan, with a population of 237,611 as of 2025.

Population Projection of Shimonoseki

According to projections by Japan's National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), Shimonoseki's population is expected to reach 222,393 by 2030 (-12.8%), 192,227 by 2040 (-24.6%), and 164,753 by 2050 (-35.4%). A significant population decline is projected over the next three decades.

Aging Rate of Shimonoseki

The aging rate (percentage of residents aged 65 and over) is 35.8% as of 2020 and is projected to rise to 44.0% by 2050. Over 40% of residents will be elderly, significantly affecting healthcare and social services needs.

National Comparison

Shimonoseki's population decline rate exceeds the national average.

National and Prefectural Rank

  • Population decline rate: Ranked #884 out of 1903 municipalities nationwide.
  • Aging rate in 2050: Ranked #951 out of 1903 nationwide.
  • Population size: Ranked #136 out of 1917 nationwide.
  • Related: National rankings / All municipalities in Yamaguchi

Earnings in Yamaguchi (山口県): Average salary in Yamaguchi (山口県) by age, gender and company sizejpsalary / MHLW Basic Survey on Wage Structure

Frequently Asked Questions

Q.What is the current population of Shimonoseki, Yamaguchi?
A.According to the 2025 national census, Shimonoseki has a population of 237,611.
Q.What is the population of Shimonoseki in 2026?
A.Shimonoseki's population in 2026 is estimated at approximately 234,567. This is an interpolated reference value between the 2025 census (237,611) and the IPSS projection for 2030 (222,393).
Q.What is the projected population of Shimonoseki in the future?
A.According to IPSS projections, Shimonoseki's population is expected to be 222,393 in 2030, 192,227 in 2040, and 164,753 in 2050.
Q.What is the population decline rate of Shimonoseki?
A.Over the 30 years from 2020 to 2050, Shimonoseki's population is projected to change by -35.4%. The 10-year change is -12.8% and the 20-year change is -24.6%.
Q.Why is the population of Shimonoseki declining?
A.Nationwide, Japan's population decline is driven by natural decrease (deaths exceeding births) and, in regional municipalities, by net out-migration of young people to major metropolitan areas. In Shimonoseki, the share of residents aged 65+ is projected to rise from 35.8% to 44.0% by 2050, which further accelerates natural decrease.
Q.What is the aging rate of Shimonoseki?
A.Shimonoseki's aging rate (percentage aged 65 and over) is 35.8% as of 2020, projected to rise to 44.0% by 2050.
Q.Where does this population data come from?
A.Historical data is sourced from Japan's national census via the e-Stat API (Statistics Bureau of Japan). Future projections are from the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS) "Regional Population Projections 2023".
Q.Is the data up to date?
A.Historical data uses national census results through 2025. Future projections use the IPSS 2023 edition, which is based on the 2020 census.

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