Japan Population Decline Simulator

Kagoshima鹿児島県

Kagoshima 鹿児島市

Data last updated:

Kagoshima, Kagoshima, Japan has a population of 580,549 (2025 national census). IPSS projections estimate 569,338 by 2030 and 498,125 by 2050 (a decrease of about 16.0% from 2020), with the share of residents aged 65+ rising from 28.3% in 2020 to 38.4%.Sources: Japan Census (Statistics Bureau), IPSS Regional Population Projections (2023)

2025

(Census)

580,549

2030

(Projection)

569,338

▼ -4.0%

2040

(Projection)

536,758

▼ -9.5%

2050

(Projection)

498,125

▼ -16.0%

Change vs. 2020 census

Elderly Rate (65+): 2020 28.3%→2050 38.4%

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Other municipalities in Kagoshima (鹿児島県)

Data Sources

  • Portal Site of Official Statistics of Japan (e-Stat)(https://www.e-stat.go.jp/)
  • National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), Regional Population Projections (2023 ed.)

* This service uses the e-Stat API but its content is not guaranteed by the Japanese government.

Kagoshima Population Table (1980–2050)

Population by year: national census results (restated to current municipal boundaries) and IPSS (2023) projections based on the 2020 census.

YearPopulationvs 2020Type
1980547,756▼ -7.6%Census
1985574,672▼ -3.1%Census
1990582,252▼ -1.8%Census
1995594,430▲ +0.2%Census
2000601,693▲ +1.4%Census
2005604,367▲ +1.9%Census
2010605,846▲ +2.1%Census
2015599,814▲ +1.1%Census
2020593,128—Census
2025580,549▼ -2.1%Census
2030569,338▼ -4.0%Projection
2035553,965▼ -6.6%Projection
2040536,758▼ -9.5%Projection
2045517,833▼ -12.7%Projection
2050498,125▼ -16.0%Projection

About Kagoshima

Overview

Kagoshima (鹿児島市) is a municipality in Kagoshima, Japan, with a population of 580,549 as of 2025.

Population Projection of Kagoshima

According to projections by Japan's National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), Kagoshima's population is expected to reach 569,338 by 2030 (-4.0%), 536,758 by 2040 (-9.5%), and 498,125 by 2050 (-16.0%). A modest population change is expected.

Aging Rate of Kagoshima

The aging rate (percentage of residents aged 65 and over) is 28.3% as of 2020 and is projected to rise to 38.4% by 2050. The aging rate will remain below the most severe Japanese averages.

National Comparison

Kagoshima's demographic trajectory is similar to the national average.

National and Prefectural Rank

  • Population decline rate: Ranked #1460 out of 1903 municipalities nationwide.
  • Aging rate in 2050: Ranked #1385 out of 1903 nationwide.
  • Population size: Ranked #31 out of 1917 nationwide.
  • Related: National rankings / All municipalities in Kagoshima

Earnings in Kagoshima (鹿児島県): Average salary in Kagoshima (鹿児島県) by age, gender and company sizejpsalary / MHLW Basic Survey on Wage Structure

Frequently Asked Questions

Q.What is the current population of Kagoshima, Kagoshima?
A.According to the 2025 national census, Kagoshima has a population of 580,549.
Q.What is the population of Kagoshima in 2026?
A.Kagoshima's population in 2026 is estimated at approximately 578,307. This is an interpolated reference value between the 2025 census (580,549) and the IPSS projection for 2030 (569,338).
Q.What is the projected population of Kagoshima in the future?
A.According to IPSS projections, Kagoshima's population is expected to be 569,338 in 2030, 536,758 in 2040, and 498,125 in 2050.
Q.What is the population decline rate of Kagoshima?
A.Over the 30 years from 2020 to 2050, Kagoshima's population is projected to change by -16.0%. The 10-year change is -4.0% and the 20-year change is -9.5%.
Q.Why is the population of Kagoshima declining?
A.Nationwide, Japan's population decline is driven by natural decrease (deaths exceeding births) and, in regional municipalities, by net out-migration of young people to major metropolitan areas. In Kagoshima, the share of residents aged 65+ is projected to rise from 28.3% to 38.4% by 2050, which further accelerates natural decrease.
Q.What is the aging rate of Kagoshima?
A.Kagoshima's aging rate (percentage aged 65 and over) is 28.3% as of 2020, projected to rise to 38.4% by 2050.
Q.Where does this population data come from?
A.Historical data is sourced from Japan's national census via the e-Stat API (Statistics Bureau of Japan). Future projections are from the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS) "Regional Population Projections 2023".
Q.Is the data up to date?
A.Historical data uses national census results through 2025. Future projections use the IPSS 2023 edition, which is based on the 2020 census.

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