Japan Population Decline Simulator

Kagoshima鹿児島県

Toshima 十島村

Data last updated:

Toshima, Kagoshima, Japan has a population of 641 (2025 national census). IPSS projections estimate 652 by 2030 and 532 by 2050 (a decrease of about 28.1% from 2020), with the share of residents aged 65+ rising from 27.6% in 2020 to 36.7%.Sources: Japan Census (Statistics Bureau), IPSS Regional Population Projections (2023)

2025

(Census)

641

2030

(Projection)

652

▼ -11.9%

2040

(Projection)

585

▼ -20.9%

2050

(Projection)

532

▼ -28.1%

Change vs. 2020 census

Elderly Rate (65+): 2020 27.6%→2050 36.7%

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Other municipalities in Kagoshima (鹿児島県)

Data Sources

  • Portal Site of Official Statistics of Japan (e-Stat)(https://www.e-stat.go.jp/)
  • National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), Regional Population Projections (2023 ed.)

* This service uses the e-Stat API but its content is not guaranteed by the Japanese government.

Toshima Population Table (1980–2050)

Population by year: national census results (restated to current municipal boundaries) and IPSS (2023) projections based on the 2020 census.

YearPopulationvs 2020Type
1980903▲ +22.0%Census
1985787▲ +6.4%Census
1990790▲ +6.8%Census
1995776▲ +4.9%Census
2000756▲ +2.2%Census
2005673▼ -9.1%Census
2010657▼ -11.2%Census
2015756▲ +2.2%Census
2020740—Census
2025641▼ -13.4%Census
2030652▼ -11.9%Projection
2035610▼ -17.6%Projection
2040585▼ -20.9%Projection
2045558▼ -24.6%Projection
2050532▼ -28.1%Projection

About Toshima

Overview

Toshima (十島村) is a municipality in Kagoshima, Japan, with a population of 641 as of 2025.

Population Projection of Toshima

According to projections by Japan's National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), Toshima's population is expected to reach 652 by 2030 (-11.9%), 585 by 2040 (-20.9%), and 532 by 2050 (-28.1%). A significant population decline is projected over the next three decades.

Aging Rate of Toshima

The aging rate (percentage of residents aged 65 and over) is 27.6% as of 2020 and is projected to rise to 36.7% by 2050. The aging rate will remain below the most severe Japanese averages.

National Comparison

Toshima's population decline rate exceeds the national average.

National and Prefectural Rank

  • Population decline rate: Ranked #1119 out of 1903 municipalities nationwide.
  • Aging rate in 2050: Ranked #1507 out of 1903 nationwide.
  • Population size: Ranked #1892 out of 1917 nationwide.
  • Related: National rankings / All municipalities in Kagoshima

Earnings in Kagoshima (鹿児島県): Average salary in Kagoshima (鹿児島県) by age, gender and company sizejpsalary / MHLW Basic Survey on Wage Structure

Frequently Asked Questions

Q.What is the current population of Toshima, Kagoshima?
A.According to the 2025 national census, Toshima has a population of 641.
Q.What is the population of Toshima in 2026?
A.Toshima's population in 2026 is estimated at approximately 643. This is an interpolated reference value between the 2025 census (641) and the IPSS projection for 2030 (652).
Q.What is the projected population of Toshima in the future?
A.According to IPSS projections, Toshima's population is expected to be 652 in 2030, 585 in 2040, and 532 in 2050.
Q.What is the population decline rate of Toshima?
A.Over the 30 years from 2020 to 2050, Toshima's population is projected to change by -28.1%. The 10-year change is -11.9% and the 20-year change is -20.9%.
Q.Why is the population of Toshima declining?
A.Nationwide, Japan's population decline is driven by natural decrease (deaths exceeding births) and, in regional municipalities, by net out-migration of young people to major metropolitan areas. In Toshima, the share of residents aged 65+ is projected to rise from 27.6% to 36.7% by 2050, which further accelerates natural decrease.
Q.What is the aging rate of Toshima?
A.Toshima's aging rate (percentage aged 65 and over) is 27.6% as of 2020, projected to rise to 36.7% by 2050.
Q.Where does this population data come from?
A.Historical data is sourced from Japan's national census via the e-Stat API (Statistics Bureau of Japan). Future projections are from the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS) "Regional Population Projections 2023".
Q.Is the data up to date?
A.Historical data uses national census results through 2025. Future projections use the IPSS 2023 edition, which is based on the 2020 census.

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