Japan Population Decline Simulator

Kagoshima鹿児島県

Tarumizu 垂水市

Data last updated:

Tarumizu, Kagoshima, Japan has a population of 12,236 (2025 national census). IPSS projections estimate 11,125 by 2030 and 6,629 by 2050 (a decrease of about 52.0% from 2020), with the share of residents aged 65+ rising from 43.1% in 2020 to 54.1%.Sources: Japan Census (Statistics Bureau), IPSS Regional Population Projections (2023)

2025

(Census)

12,236

2030

(Projection)

11,125

▼ -19.5%

2040

(Projection)

8,774

▼ -36.5%

2050

(Projection)

6,629

▼ -52.0%

Change vs. 2020 census

Elderly Rate (65+): 2020 43.1%→2050 54.1%

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Other municipalities in Kagoshima (鹿児島県)

Data Sources

  • Portal Site of Official Statistics of Japan (e-Stat)(https://www.e-stat.go.jp/)
  • National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), Regional Population Projections (2023 ed.)

* This service uses the e-Stat API but its content is not guaranteed by the Japanese government.

Tarumizu Population Table (1980–2050)

Population by year: national census results (restated to current municipal boundaries) and IPSS (2023) projections based on the 2020 census.

YearPopulationvs 2020Type
198024,179▲ +75.0%Census
198523,504▲ +70.1%Census
199022,264▲ +61.1%Census
199520,933▲ +51.5%Census
200020,107▲ +45.5%Census
200518,928▲ +37.0%Census
201017,248▲ +24.8%Census
201515,520▲ +12.3%Census
202013,819—Census
202512,236▼ -11.5%Census
203011,125▼ -19.5%Projection
20359,923▼ -28.2%Projection
20408,774▼ -36.5%Projection
20457,663▼ -44.5%Projection
20506,629▼ -52.0%Projection

About Tarumizu

Overview

Tarumizu (垂水市) is a municipality in Kagoshima, Japan, with a population of 12,236 as of 2025.

Population Projection of Tarumizu

According to projections by Japan's National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), Tarumizu's population is expected to reach 11,125 by 2030 (-19.5%), 8,774 by 2040 (-36.5%), and 6,629 by 2050 (-52.0%). The town is projected to lose more than half its population over 30 years.

Aging Rate of Tarumizu

The aging rate (percentage of residents aged 65 and over) is 43.1% as of 2020 and is projected to rise to 54.1% by 2050. More than half of residents will be seniors, placing the town in the "marginal municipality" category.

National Comparison

Tarumizu is experiencing one of the faster rates of population decline in Japan.

National and Prefectural Rank

  • Population decline rate: Ranked #266 out of 1903 municipalities nationwide.
  • Aging rate in 2050: Ranked #322 out of 1903 nationwide.
  • Population size: Ranked #1280 out of 1917 nationwide.
  • Related: National rankings / All municipalities in Kagoshima

Earnings in Kagoshima (鹿児島県): Average salary in Kagoshima (鹿児島県) by age, gender and company sizejpsalary / MHLW Basic Survey on Wage Structure

Frequently Asked Questions

Q.What is the current population of Tarumizu, Kagoshima?
A.According to the 2025 national census, Tarumizu has a population of 12,236.
Q.What is the population of Tarumizu in 2026?
A.Tarumizu's population in 2026 is estimated at approximately 12,014. This is an interpolated reference value between the 2025 census (12,236) and the IPSS projection for 2030 (11,125).
Q.What is the projected population of Tarumizu in the future?
A.According to IPSS projections, Tarumizu's population is expected to be 11,125 in 2030, 8,774 in 2040, and 6,629 in 2050.
Q.What is the population decline rate of Tarumizu?
A.Over the 30 years from 2020 to 2050, Tarumizu's population is projected to change by -52.0%. The 10-year change is -19.5% and the 20-year change is -36.5%.
Q.Why is the population of Tarumizu declining?
A.Nationwide, Japan's population decline is driven by natural decrease (deaths exceeding births) and, in regional municipalities, by net out-migration of young people to major metropolitan areas. In Tarumizu, the share of residents aged 65+ is projected to rise from 43.1% to 54.1% by 2050, which further accelerates natural decrease.
Q.What is the aging rate of Tarumizu?
A.Tarumizu's aging rate (percentage aged 65 and over) is 43.1% as of 2020, projected to rise to 54.1% by 2050.
Q.Where does this population data come from?
A.Historical data is sourced from Japan's national census via the e-Stat API (Statistics Bureau of Japan). Future projections are from the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS) "Regional Population Projections 2023".
Q.Is the data up to date?
A.Historical data uses national census results through 2025. Future projections use the IPSS 2023 edition, which is based on the 2020 census.

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