Kagoshima鹿児島県
Tokunoshima 徳之島町
Data last updated:
Tokunoshima, Kagoshima, Japan has a population of 9,284 (2025 national census). IPSS projections estimate 8,617 by 2030 and 6,170 by 2050 (a decrease of about 39.2% from 2020), with the share of residents aged 65+ rising from 33.2% in 2020 to 45.7%.Sources: Japan Census (Statistics Bureau), IPSS Regional Population Projections (2023)
2025
(Census)
9,284
2030
(Projection)
8,617
▼ -15.1%
2040
(Projection)
7,360
▼ -27.5%
2050
(Projection)
6,170
▼ -39.2%
Change vs. 2020 census
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Other municipalities in Kagoshima (鹿児島県)
Data Sources
- Portal Site of Official Statistics of Japan (e-Stat)（https://www.e-stat.go.jp/）
- National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), Regional Population Projections (2023 ed.)
* This service uses the e-Stat API but its content is not guaranteed by the Japanese government.
Tokunoshima Population Table (1980–2050)
Population by year: national census results (restated to current municipal boundaries) and IPSS (2023) projections based on the 2020 census.
| Year | Population | vs 2020 | Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1980 | 15,553 | ▲ +53.3% | Census |
| 1985 | 15,321 | ▲ +51.0% | Census |
| 1990 | 14,536 | ▲ +43.3% | Census |
| 1995 | 13,640 | ▲ +34.4% | Census |
| 2000 | 13,127 | ▲ +29.4% | Census |
| 2005 | 12,892 | ▲ +27.1% | Census |
| 2010 | 12,090 | ▲ +19.1% | Census |
| 2015 | 11,160 | ▲ +10.0% | Census |
| 2020 | 10,147 | — | Census |
| 2025 | 9,284 | ▼ -8.5% | Census |
| 2030 | 8,617 | ▼ -15.1% | Projection |
| 2035 | 7,970 | ▼ -21.5% | Projection |
| 2040 | 7,360 | ▼ -27.5% | Projection |
| 2045 | 6,772 | ▼ -33.3% | Projection |
| 2050 | 6,170 | ▼ -39.2% | Projection |
About Tokunoshima
Overview
Tokunoshima (徳之島町) is a municipality in Kagoshima, Japan, with a population of 9,284 as of 2025.
Population Projection of Tokunoshima
According to projections by Japan's National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), Tokunoshima's population is expected to reach 8,617 by 2030 (-15.1%), 7,360 by 2040 (-27.5%), and 6,170 by 2050 (-39.2%). A significant population decline is projected over the next three decades.
Aging Rate of Tokunoshima
The aging rate (percentage of residents aged 65 and over) is 33.2% as of 2020 and is projected to rise to 45.7% by 2050. Over 40% of residents will be elderly, significantly affecting healthcare and social services needs.
National Comparison
Tokunoshima's population decline rate exceeds the national average.
National and Prefectural Rank
- Population decline rate: Ranked #751 out of 1903 municipalities nationwide.
- Aging rate in 2050: Ranked #845 out of 1903 nationwide.
- Population size: Ranked #1381 out of 1917 nationwide.
- Related: National rankings / All municipalities in Kagoshima
Earnings in Kagoshima (鹿児島県): Average salary in Kagoshima (鹿児島県) by age, gender and company sizejpsalary / MHLW Basic Survey on Wage Structure