Japan Population Decline Simulator

Yamagata山形県

Tsuruoka 鶴岡市

Data last updated:

Tsuruoka, Yamagata, Japan has a population of 113,051 (2025 national census). IPSS projections estimate 106,703 by 2030 and 76,968 by 2050 (a decrease of about 37.1% from 2020), with the share of residents aged 65+ rising from 35.3% in 2020 to 46.3%.Sources: Japan Census (Statistics Bureau), IPSS Regional Population Projections (2023)

2025

(Census)

113,051

2030

(Projection)

106,703

▼ -12.8%

2040

(Projection)

91,644

▼ -25.1%

2050

(Projection)

76,968

▼ -37.1%

Change vs. 2020 census

Elderly Rate (65+): 2020 35.3%→2050 46.3%

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Other municipalities in Yamagata (山形県)

Data Sources

  • Portal Site of Official Statistics of Japan (e-Stat)(https://www.e-stat.go.jp/)
  • National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), Regional Population Projections (2023 ed.)

* This service uses the e-Stat API but its content is not guaranteed by the Japanese government.

Tsuruoka Population Table (1980–2050)

Population by year: national census results (restated to current municipal boundaries) and IPSS (2023) projections based on the 2020 census.

YearPopulationvs 2020Type
1980153,330▲ +25.3%Census
1985152,636▲ +24.8%Census
1990150,840▲ +23.3%Census
1995149,509▲ +22.2%Census
2000147,546▲ +20.6%Census
2005142,384▲ +16.4%Census
2010136,623▲ +11.7%Census
2015129,652▲ +6.0%Census
2020122,347—Census
2025113,051▼ -7.6%Census
2030106,703▼ -12.8%Projection
203599,090▼ -19.0%Projection
204091,644▼ -25.1%Projection
204584,250▼ -31.1%Projection
205076,968▼ -37.1%Projection

About Tsuruoka

Overview

Tsuruoka (鶴岡市) is a municipality in Yamagata, Japan, with a population of 113,051 as of 2025.

Population Projection of Tsuruoka

According to projections by Japan's National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), Tsuruoka's population is expected to reach 106,703 by 2030 (-12.8%), 91,644 by 2040 (-25.1%), and 76,968 by 2050 (-37.1%). A significant population decline is projected over the next three decades.

Aging Rate of Tsuruoka

The aging rate (percentage of residents aged 65 and over) is 35.3% as of 2020 and is projected to rise to 46.3% by 2050. Over 40% of residents will be elderly, significantly affecting healthcare and social services needs.

National Comparison

Tsuruoka's population decline rate exceeds the national average.

National and Prefectural Rank

  • Population decline rate: Ranked #821 out of 1903 municipalities nationwide.
  • Aging rate in 2050: Ranked #797 out of 1903 nationwide.
  • Population size: Ranked #361 out of 1917 nationwide.
  • Related: National rankings / All municipalities in Yamagata

Earnings in Yamagata (山形県): Average salary in Yamagata (山形県) by age, gender and company sizejpsalary / MHLW Basic Survey on Wage Structure

Frequently Asked Questions

Q.What is the current population of Tsuruoka, Yamagata?
A.According to the 2025 national census, Tsuruoka has a population of 113,051.
Q.What is the population of Tsuruoka in 2026?
A.Tsuruoka's population in 2026 is estimated at approximately 111,781. This is an interpolated reference value between the 2025 census (113,051) and the IPSS projection for 2030 (106,703).
Q.What is the projected population of Tsuruoka in the future?
A.According to IPSS projections, Tsuruoka's population is expected to be 106,703 in 2030, 91,644 in 2040, and 76,968 in 2050.
Q.What is the population decline rate of Tsuruoka?
A.Over the 30 years from 2020 to 2050, Tsuruoka's population is projected to change by -37.1%. The 10-year change is -12.8% and the 20-year change is -25.1%.
Q.Why is the population of Tsuruoka declining?
A.Nationwide, Japan's population decline is driven by natural decrease (deaths exceeding births) and, in regional municipalities, by net out-migration of young people to major metropolitan areas. In Tsuruoka, the share of residents aged 65+ is projected to rise from 35.3% to 46.3% by 2050, which further accelerates natural decrease.
Q.What is the aging rate of Tsuruoka?
A.Tsuruoka's aging rate (percentage aged 65 and over) is 35.3% as of 2020, projected to rise to 46.3% by 2050.
Q.Where does this population data come from?
A.Historical data is sourced from Japan's national census via the e-Stat API (Statistics Bureau of Japan). Future projections are from the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS) "Regional Population Projections 2023".
Q.Is the data up to date?
A.Historical data uses national census results through 2025. Future projections use the IPSS 2023 edition, which is based on the 2020 census.

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