Japan Population Decline Simulator

Yamagata山形県

Obanazawa 尾花沢市

Data last updated:

Obanazawa, Yamagata, Japan has a population of 12,783 (2025 national census). IPSS projections estimate 11,344 by 2030 and 6,207 by 2050 (a decrease of about 58.5% from 2020), with the share of residents aged 65+ rising from 41.6% in 2020 to 58.0%.Sources: Japan Census (Statistics Bureau), IPSS Regional Population Projections (2023)

2025

(Census)

12,783

2030

(Projection)

11,344

▼ -24.2%

2040

(Projection)

8,565

▼ -42.8%

2050

(Projection)

6,207

▼ -58.5%

Change vs. 2020 census

Elderly Rate (65+): 2020 41.6%→2050 58%

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Other municipalities in Yamagata (山形県)

Data Sources

  • Portal Site of Official Statistics of Japan (e-Stat)(https://www.e-stat.go.jp/)
  • National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), Regional Population Projections (2023 ed.)

* This service uses the e-Stat API but its content is not guaranteed by the Japanese government.

Obanazawa Population Table (1980–2050)

Population by year: national census results (restated to current municipal boundaries) and IPSS (2023) projections based on the 2020 census.

YearPopulationvs 2020Type
198025,231▲ +68.5%Census
198524,801▲ +65.7%Census
199023,909▲ +59.7%Census
199523,127▲ +54.5%Census
200022,010▲ +47.0%Census
200520,695▲ +38.2%Census
201018,955▲ +26.6%Census
201516,953▲ +13.2%Census
202014,971—Census
202512,783▼ -14.6%Census
203011,344▼ -24.2%Projection
20359,886▼ -34.0%Projection
20408,565▼ -42.8%Projection
20457,333▼ -51.0%Projection
20506,207▼ -58.5%Projection

About Obanazawa

Overview

Obanazawa (尾花沢市) is a municipality in Yamagata, Japan, with a population of 12,783 as of 2025.

Population Projection of Obanazawa

According to projections by Japan's National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), Obanazawa's population is expected to reach 11,344 by 2030 (-24.2%), 8,565 by 2040 (-42.8%), and 6,207 by 2050 (-58.5%). The town is projected to lose more than half its population over 30 years.

Aging Rate of Obanazawa

The aging rate (percentage of residents aged 65 and over) is 41.6% as of 2020 and is projected to rise to 58.0% by 2050. More than half of residents will be seniors, placing the town in the "marginal municipality" category.

National Comparison

Obanazawa is experiencing one of the faster rates of population decline in Japan.

National and Prefectural Rank

  • Population decline rate: Ranked #89 out of 1903 municipalities nationwide.
  • Aging rate in 2050: Ranked #169 out of 1903 nationwide.
  • Population size: Ranked #1255 out of 1917 nationwide.
  • Related: National rankings / All municipalities in Yamagata

Earnings in Yamagata (山形県): Average salary in Yamagata (山形県) by age, gender and company sizejpsalary / MHLW Basic Survey on Wage Structure

Frequently Asked Questions

Q.What is the current population of Obanazawa, Yamagata?
A.According to the 2025 national census, Obanazawa has a population of 12,783.
Q.What is the population of Obanazawa in 2026?
A.Obanazawa's population in 2026 is estimated at approximately 12,495. This is an interpolated reference value between the 2025 census (12,783) and the IPSS projection for 2030 (11,344).
Q.What is the projected population of Obanazawa in the future?
A.According to IPSS projections, Obanazawa's population is expected to be 11,344 in 2030, 8,565 in 2040, and 6,207 in 2050.
Q.What is the population decline rate of Obanazawa?
A.Over the 30 years from 2020 to 2050, Obanazawa's population is projected to change by -58.5%. The 10-year change is -24.2% and the 20-year change is -42.8%.
Q.Why is the population of Obanazawa declining?
A.Nationwide, Japan's population decline is driven by natural decrease (deaths exceeding births) and, in regional municipalities, by net out-migration of young people to major metropolitan areas. In Obanazawa, the share of residents aged 65+ is projected to rise from 41.6% to 58.0% by 2050, which further accelerates natural decrease.
Q.What is the aging rate of Obanazawa?
A.Obanazawa's aging rate (percentage aged 65 and over) is 41.6% as of 2020, projected to rise to 58.0% by 2050.
Q.Where does this population data come from?
A.Historical data is sourced from Japan's national census via the e-Stat API (Statistics Bureau of Japan). Future projections are from the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS) "Regional Population Projections 2023".
Q.Is the data up to date?
A.Historical data uses national census results through 2025. Future projections use the IPSS 2023 edition, which is based on the 2020 census.

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