Japan Population Decline Simulator

Kochi高知県

Shimanto 四万十町

Data last updated:

Shimanto, Kochi, Japan has a population of 13,839 (2025 national census). IPSS projections estimate 12,424 by 2030 and 7,595 by 2050 (a decrease of about 51.3% from 2020), with the share of residents aged 65+ rising from 44.9% in 2020 to 54.1%.Sources: Japan Census (Statistics Bureau), IPSS Regional Population Projections (2023)

2025

(Census)

13,839

2030

(Projection)

12,424

▼ -20.4%

2040

(Projection)

9,872

▼ -36.7%

2050

(Projection)

7,595

▼ -51.3%

Change vs. 2020 census

Elderly Rate (65+): 2020 44.9%→2050 54.1%

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Data Sources

  • Portal Site of Official Statistics of Japan (e-Stat)(https://www.e-stat.go.jp/)
  • National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), Regional Population Projections (2023 ed.)

* This service uses the e-Stat API but its content is not guaranteed by the Japanese government.

Shimanto Population Table (1980–2050)

Population by year: national census results (restated to current municipal boundaries) and IPSS (2023) projections based on the 2020 census.

YearPopulationvs 2020Type
198026,438▲ +69.4%Census
198525,622▲ +64.2%Census
199024,226▲ +55.2%Census
199523,081▲ +47.9%Census
200021,844▲ +40.0%Census
200520,527▲ +31.5%Census
201018,733▲ +20.0%Census
201517,325▲ +11.0%Census
202015,607—Census
202513,839▼ -11.3%Census
203012,424▼ -20.4%Projection
203511,120▼ -28.7%Projection
20409,872▼ -36.7%Projection
20458,687▼ -44.3%Projection
20507,595▼ -51.3%Projection

About Shimanto

Overview

Shimanto (四万十町) is a municipality in Kochi, Japan, with a population of 13,839 as of 2025.

Population Projection of Shimanto

According to projections by Japan's National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), Shimanto's population is expected to reach 12,424 by 2030 (-20.4%), 9,872 by 2040 (-36.7%), and 7,595 by 2050 (-51.3%). The town is projected to lose more than half its population over 30 years.

Aging Rate of Shimanto

The aging rate (percentage of residents aged 65 and over) is 44.9% as of 2020 and is projected to rise to 54.1% by 2050. More than half of residents will be seniors, placing the town in the "marginal municipality" category.

National Comparison

Shimanto is experiencing one of the faster rates of population decline in Japan.

National and Prefectural Rank

  • Population decline rate: Ranked #285 out of 1903 municipalities nationwide.
  • Aging rate in 2050: Ranked #321 out of 1903 nationwide.
  • Population size: Ranked #1221 out of 1917 nationwide.
  • Related: National rankings / All municipalities in Kochi

Earnings in Kochi (高知県): Average salary in Kochi (高知県) by age, gender and company sizejpsalary / MHLW Basic Survey on Wage Structure

Frequently Asked Questions

Q.What is the current population of Shimanto, Kochi?
A.According to the 2025 national census, Shimanto has a population of 13,839.
Q.What is the population of Shimanto in 2026?
A.Shimanto's population in 2026 is estimated at approximately 13,556. This is an interpolated reference value between the 2025 census (13,839) and the IPSS projection for 2030 (12,424).
Q.What is the projected population of Shimanto in the future?
A.According to IPSS projections, Shimanto's population is expected to be 12,424 in 2030, 9,872 in 2040, and 7,595 in 2050.
Q.What is the population decline rate of Shimanto?
A.Over the 30 years from 2020 to 2050, Shimanto's population is projected to change by -51.3%. The 10-year change is -20.4% and the 20-year change is -36.7%.
Q.Why is the population of Shimanto declining?
A.Nationwide, Japan's population decline is driven by natural decrease (deaths exceeding births) and, in regional municipalities, by net out-migration of young people to major metropolitan areas. In Shimanto, the share of residents aged 65+ is projected to rise from 44.9% to 54.1% by 2050, which further accelerates natural decrease.
Q.What is the aging rate of Shimanto?
A.Shimanto's aging rate (percentage aged 65 and over) is 44.9% as of 2020, projected to rise to 54.1% by 2050.
Q.Where does this population data come from?
A.Historical data is sourced from Japan's national census via the e-Stat API (Statistics Bureau of Japan). Future projections are from the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS) "Regional Population Projections 2023".
Q.Is the data up to date?
A.Historical data uses national census results through 2025. Future projections use the IPSS 2023 edition, which is based on the 2020 census.

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