Japan Population Decline Simulator

Fukuoka福岡県

Ashiya 芦屋町

Data last updated:

Ashiya, Fukuoka, Japan has a population of 12,289 (2025 national census). IPSS projections estimate 11,651 by 2030 and 8,281 by 2050 (a decrease of about 38.9% from 2020), with the share of residents aged 65+ rising from 32.2% in 2020 to 42.6%.Sources: Japan Census (Statistics Bureau), IPSS Regional Population Projections (2023)

2025

(Census)

12,289

2030

(Projection)

11,651

▼ -14.0%

2040

(Projection)

9,919

▼ -26.8%

2050

(Projection)

8,281

▼ -38.9%

Change vs. 2020 census

Elderly Rate (65+): 2020 32.2%→2050 42.6%

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Data Sources

  • Portal Site of Official Statistics of Japan (e-Stat)(https://www.e-stat.go.jp/)
  • National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), Regional Population Projections (2023 ed.)

* This service uses the e-Stat API but its content is not guaranteed by the Japanese government.

Ashiya Population Table (1980–2050)

Population by year: national census results (restated to current municipal boundaries) and IPSS (2023) projections based on the 2020 census.

YearPopulationvs 2020Type
198018,934▲ +39.8%Census
198518,643▲ +37.6%Census
199017,398▲ +28.4%Census
199516,685▲ +23.2%Census
200015,827▲ +16.8%Census
200516,247▲ +19.9%Census
201015,369▲ +13.5%Census
201514,208▲ +4.9%Census
202013,545—Census
202512,289▼ -9.3%Census
203011,651▼ -14.0%Projection
203510,773▼ -20.5%Projection
20409,919▼ -26.8%Projection
20459,083▼ -32.9%Projection
20508,281▼ -38.9%Projection

About Ashiya

Overview

Ashiya (芦屋町) is a municipality in Fukuoka, Japan, with a population of 12,289 as of 2025.

Population Projection of Ashiya

According to projections by Japan's National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), Ashiya's population is expected to reach 11,651 by 2030 (-14.0%), 9,919 by 2040 (-26.8%), and 8,281 by 2050 (-38.9%). A significant population decline is projected over the next three decades.

Aging Rate of Ashiya

The aging rate (percentage of residents aged 65 and over) is 32.2% as of 2020 and is projected to rise to 42.6% by 2050. Over 40% of residents will be elderly, significantly affecting healthcare and social services needs.

National Comparison

Ashiya's population decline rate exceeds the national average.

National and Prefectural Rank

  • Population decline rate: Ranked #761 out of 1903 municipalities nationwide.
  • Aging rate in 2050: Ranked #1052 out of 1903 nationwide.
  • Population size: Ranked #1278 out of 1917 nationwide.
  • Related: National rankings / All municipalities in Fukuoka

Earnings in Fukuoka (福岡県): Average salary in Fukuoka (福岡県) by age, gender and company sizejpsalary / MHLW Basic Survey on Wage Structure

Frequently Asked Questions

Q.What is the current population of Ashiya, Fukuoka?
A.According to the 2025 national census, Ashiya has a population of 12,289.
Q.What is the population of Ashiya in 2026?
A.Ashiya's population in 2026 is estimated at approximately 12,161. This is an interpolated reference value between the 2025 census (12,289) and the IPSS projection for 2030 (11,651).
Q.What is the projected population of Ashiya in the future?
A.According to IPSS projections, Ashiya's population is expected to be 11,651 in 2030, 9,919 in 2040, and 8,281 in 2050.
Q.What is the population decline rate of Ashiya?
A.Over the 30 years from 2020 to 2050, Ashiya's population is projected to change by -38.9%. The 10-year change is -14.0% and the 20-year change is -26.8%.
Q.Why is the population of Ashiya declining?
A.Nationwide, Japan's population decline is driven by natural decrease (deaths exceeding births) and, in regional municipalities, by net out-migration of young people to major metropolitan areas. In Ashiya, the share of residents aged 65+ is projected to rise from 32.2% to 42.6% by 2050, which further accelerates natural decrease.
Q.What is the aging rate of Ashiya?
A.Ashiya's aging rate (percentage aged 65 and over) is 32.2% as of 2020, projected to rise to 42.6% by 2050.
Q.Where does this population data come from?
A.Historical data is sourced from Japan's national census via the e-Stat API (Statistics Bureau of Japan). Future projections are from the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS) "Regional Population Projections 2023".
Q.Is the data up to date?
A.Historical data uses national census results through 2025. Future projections use the IPSS 2023 edition, which is based on the 2020 census.

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