Japan Population Decline Simulator

Fukuoka福岡県

Tachiarai 大刀洗町

Data last updated:

Tachiarai, Fukuoka, Japan has a population of 15,784 (2025 national census). IPSS projections estimate 15,429 by 2030 and 13,781 by 2050 (a decrease of about 11.2% from 2020), with the share of residents aged 65+ rising from 28.0% in 2020 to 34.9%.Sources: Japan Census (Statistics Bureau), IPSS Regional Population Projections (2023)

2025

(Census)

15,784

2030

(Projection)

15,429

▼ -0.6%

2040

(Projection)

14,634

▼ -5.7%

2050

(Projection)

13,781

▼ -11.2%

Change vs. 2020 census

Elderly Rate (65+): 2020 28%→2050 34.9%

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Data Sources

  • Portal Site of Official Statistics of Japan (e-Stat)(https://www.e-stat.go.jp/)
  • National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), Regional Population Projections (2023 ed.)

* This service uses the e-Stat API but its content is not guaranteed by the Japanese government.

Tachiarai Population Table (1980–2050)

Population by year: national census results (restated to current municipal boundaries) and IPSS (2023) projections based on the 2020 census.

YearPopulationvs 2020Type
198013,203▼ -14.9%Census
198513,576▼ -12.5%Census
199014,098▼ -9.2%Census
199514,755▼ -4.9%Census
200015,227▼ -1.9%Census
200515,400▼ -0.8%Census
201015,284▼ -1.5%Census
201515,138▼ -2.5%Census
202015,521—Census
202515,784▲ +1.7%Census
203015,429▼ -0.6%Projection
203515,050▼ -3.0%Projection
204014,634▼ -5.7%Projection
204514,209▼ -8.5%Projection
205013,781▼ -11.2%Projection

About Tachiarai

Overview

Tachiarai (大刀洗町) is a municipality in Fukuoka, Japan, with a population of 15,784 as of 2025.

Population Projection of Tachiarai

According to projections by Japan's National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), Tachiarai's population is expected to reach 15,429 by 2030 (-0.6%), 14,634 by 2040 (-5.7%), and 13,781 by 2050 (-11.2%). A modest population change is expected.

Aging Rate of Tachiarai

The aging rate (percentage of residents aged 65 and over) is 28.0% as of 2020 and is projected to rise to 34.9% by 2050. The aging rate will remain below the most severe Japanese averages.

National Comparison

Tachiarai's demographic trajectory is similar to the national average.

National and Prefectural Rank

  • Population decline rate: Ranked #1588 out of 1903 municipalities nationwide.
  • Aging rate in 2050: Ranked #1620 out of 1903 nationwide.
  • Population size: Ranked #1166 out of 1917 nationwide.
  • Related: National rankings / All municipalities in Fukuoka

Earnings in Fukuoka (福岡県): Average salary in Fukuoka (福岡県) by age, gender and company sizejpsalary / MHLW Basic Survey on Wage Structure

Frequently Asked Questions

Q.What is the current population of Tachiarai, Fukuoka?
A.According to the 2025 national census, Tachiarai has a population of 15,784.
Q.What is the population of Tachiarai in 2026?
A.Tachiarai's population in 2026 is estimated at approximately 15,713. This is an interpolated reference value between the 2025 census (15,784) and the IPSS projection for 2030 (15,429).
Q.What is the projected population of Tachiarai in the future?
A.According to IPSS projections, Tachiarai's population is expected to be 15,429 in 2030, 14,634 in 2040, and 13,781 in 2050.
Q.What is the population decline rate of Tachiarai?
A.Over the 30 years from 2020 to 2050, Tachiarai's population is projected to change by -11.2%. The 10-year change is -0.6% and the 20-year change is -5.7%.
Q.Why is the population of Tachiarai declining?
A.Nationwide, Japan's population decline is driven by natural decrease (deaths exceeding births) and, in regional municipalities, by net out-migration of young people to major metropolitan areas. In Tachiarai, the share of residents aged 65+ is projected to rise from 28.0% to 34.9% by 2050, which further accelerates natural decrease.
Q.What is the aging rate of Tachiarai?
A.Tachiarai's aging rate (percentage aged 65 and over) is 28.0% as of 2020, projected to rise to 34.9% by 2050.
Q.Where does this population data come from?
A.Historical data is sourced from Japan's national census via the e-Stat API (Statistics Bureau of Japan). Future projections are from the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS) "Regional Population Projections 2023".
Q.Is the data up to date?
A.Historical data uses national census results through 2025. Future projections use the IPSS 2023 edition, which is based on the 2020 census.

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