Japan Population Decline Simulator

Kumamoto熊本県

Tsunagi 津奈木町

Data last updated:

Tsunagi, Kumamoto, Japan has a population of 3,811 (2025 national census). IPSS projections estimate 3,498 by 2030 and 2,177 by 2050 (a decrease of about 48.8% from 2020), with the share of residents aged 65+ rising from 42.5% in 2020 to 57.2%.Sources: Japan Census (Statistics Bureau), IPSS Regional Population Projections (2023)

2025

(Census)

3,811

2030

(Projection)

3,498

▼ -17.8%

2040

(Projection)

2,804

▼ -34.1%

2050

(Projection)

2,177

▼ -48.8%

Change vs. 2020 census

Elderly Rate (65+): 2020 42.5%→2050 57.2%

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Other municipalities in Kumamoto (熊本県)

Data Sources

  • Portal Site of Official Statistics of Japan (e-Stat)(https://www.e-stat.go.jp/)
  • National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), Regional Population Projections (2023 ed.)

* This service uses the e-Stat API but its content is not guaranteed by the Japanese government.

Tsunagi Population Table (1980–2050)

Population by year: national census results (restated to current municipal boundaries) and IPSS (2023) projections based on the 2020 census.

YearPopulationvs 2020Type
19806,053▲ +42.3%Census
19855,971▲ +40.4%Census
19905,783▲ +35.9%Census
19955,793▲ +36.2%Census
20005,741▲ +35.0%Census
20055,424▲ +27.5%Census
20105,062▲ +19.0%Census
20154,673▲ +9.8%Census
20204,254—Census
20253,811▼ -10.4%Census
20303,498▼ -17.8%Projection
20353,138▼ -26.2%Projection
20402,804▼ -34.1%Projection
20452,487▼ -41.5%Projection
20502,177▼ -48.8%Projection

About Tsunagi

Overview

Tsunagi (津奈木町) is a municipality in Kumamoto, Japan, with a population of 3,811 as of 2025.

Population Projection of Tsunagi

According to projections by Japan's National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), Tsunagi's population is expected to reach 3,498 by 2030 (-17.8%), 2,804 by 2040 (-34.1%), and 2,177 by 2050 (-48.8%). A significant population decline is projected over the next three decades.

Aging Rate of Tsunagi

The aging rate (percentage of residents aged 65 and over) is 42.5% as of 2020 and is projected to rise to 57.2% by 2050. More than half of residents will be seniors, placing the town in the "marginal municipality" category.

National Comparison

Tsunagi is experiencing one of the faster rates of population decline in Japan.

National and Prefectural Rank

  • Population decline rate: Ranked #386 out of 1903 municipalities nationwide.
  • Aging rate in 2050: Ranked #195 out of 1903 nationwide.
  • Population size: Ranked #1669 out of 1917 nationwide.
  • Related: National rankings / All municipalities in Kumamoto

Earnings in Kumamoto (熊本県): Average salary in Kumamoto (熊本県) by age, gender and company sizejpsalary / MHLW Basic Survey on Wage Structure

Frequently Asked Questions

Q.What is the current population of Tsunagi, Kumamoto?
A.According to the 2025 national census, Tsunagi has a population of 3,811.
Q.What is the population of Tsunagi in 2026?
A.Tsunagi's population in 2026 is estimated at approximately 3,748. This is an interpolated reference value between the 2025 census (3,811) and the IPSS projection for 2030 (3,498).
Q.What is the projected population of Tsunagi in the future?
A.According to IPSS projections, Tsunagi's population is expected to be 3,498 in 2030, 2,804 in 2040, and 2,177 in 2050.
Q.What is the population decline rate of Tsunagi?
A.Over the 30 years from 2020 to 2050, Tsunagi's population is projected to change by -48.8%. The 10-year change is -17.8% and the 20-year change is -34.1%.
Q.Why is the population of Tsunagi declining?
A.Nationwide, Japan's population decline is driven by natural decrease (deaths exceeding births) and, in regional municipalities, by net out-migration of young people to major metropolitan areas. In Tsunagi, the share of residents aged 65+ is projected to rise from 42.5% to 57.2% by 2050, which further accelerates natural decrease.
Q.What is the aging rate of Tsunagi?
A.Tsunagi's aging rate (percentage aged 65 and over) is 42.5% as of 2020, projected to rise to 57.2% by 2050.
Q.Where does this population data come from?
A.Historical data is sourced from Japan's national census via the e-Stat API (Statistics Bureau of Japan). Future projections are from the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS) "Regional Population Projections 2023".
Q.Is the data up to date?
A.Historical data uses national census results through 2025. Future projections use the IPSS 2023 edition, which is based on the 2020 census.

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