Japan Population Decline Simulator

Oita大分県

Tsukumi 津久見市

Data last updated:

Tsukumi, Oita, Japan has a population of 14,047 (2025 national census). IPSS projections estimate 12,381 by 2030 and 6,800 by 2050 (a decrease of about 57.8% from 2020), with the share of residents aged 65+ rising from 45.0% in 2020 to 57.0%.Sources: Japan Census (Statistics Bureau), IPSS Regional Population Projections (2023)

2025

(Census)

14,047

2030

(Projection)

12,381

▼ -23.1%

2040

(Projection)

9,342

▼ -42.0%

2050

(Projection)

6,800

▼ -57.8%

Change vs. 2020 census

Elderly Rate (65+): 2020 45%→2050 57%

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Other municipalities in Oita (大分県)

Data Sources

  • Portal Site of Official Statistics of Japan (e-Stat)(https://www.e-stat.go.jp/)
  • National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), Regional Population Projections (2023 ed.)

* This service uses the e-Stat API but its content is not guaranteed by the Japanese government.

Tsukumi Population Table (1980–2050)

Population by year: national census results (restated to current municipal boundaries) and IPSS (2023) projections based on the 2020 census.

YearPopulationvs 2020Type
198030,454▲ +89.2%Census
198528,836▲ +79.1%Census
199026,797▲ +66.4%Census
199524,848▲ +54.3%Census
200023,164▲ +43.9%Census
200521,456▲ +33.3%Census
201019,917▲ +23.7%Census
201517,969▲ +11.6%Census
202016,100—Census
202514,047▼ -12.8%Census
203012,381▼ -23.1%Projection
203510,792▼ -33.0%Projection
20409,342▼ -42.0%Projection
20457,987▼ -50.4%Projection
20506,800▼ -57.8%Projection

About Tsukumi

Overview

Tsukumi (津久見市) is a municipality in Oita, Japan, with a population of 14,047 as of 2025.

Population Projection of Tsukumi

According to projections by Japan's National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), Tsukumi's population is expected to reach 12,381 by 2030 (-23.1%), 9,342 by 2040 (-42.0%), and 6,800 by 2050 (-57.8%). The town is projected to lose more than half its population over 30 years.

Aging Rate of Tsukumi

The aging rate (percentage of residents aged 65 and over) is 45.0% as of 2020 and is projected to rise to 57.0% by 2050. More than half of residents will be seniors, placing the town in the "marginal municipality" category.

National Comparison

Tsukumi is experiencing one of the faster rates of population decline in Japan.

National and Prefectural Rank

  • Population decline rate: Ranked #105 out of 1903 municipalities nationwide.
  • Aging rate in 2050: Ranked #202 out of 1903 nationwide.
  • Population size: Ranked #1212 out of 1917 nationwide.
  • Related: National rankings / All municipalities in Oita

Earnings in Oita (大分県): Average salary in Oita (大分県) by age, gender and company sizejpsalary / MHLW Basic Survey on Wage Structure

Frequently Asked Questions

Q.What is the current population of Tsukumi, Oita?
A.According to the 2025 national census, Tsukumi has a population of 14,047.
Q.What is the population of Tsukumi in 2026?
A.Tsukumi's population in 2026 is estimated at approximately 13,714. This is an interpolated reference value between the 2025 census (14,047) and the IPSS projection for 2030 (12,381).
Q.What is the projected population of Tsukumi in the future?
A.According to IPSS projections, Tsukumi's population is expected to be 12,381 in 2030, 9,342 in 2040, and 6,800 in 2050.
Q.What is the population decline rate of Tsukumi?
A.Over the 30 years from 2020 to 2050, Tsukumi's population is projected to change by -57.8%. The 10-year change is -23.1% and the 20-year change is -42.0%.
Q.Why is the population of Tsukumi declining?
A.Nationwide, Japan's population decline is driven by natural decrease (deaths exceeding births) and, in regional municipalities, by net out-migration of young people to major metropolitan areas. In Tsukumi, the share of residents aged 65+ is projected to rise from 45.0% to 57.0% by 2050, which further accelerates natural decrease.
Q.What is the aging rate of Tsukumi?
A.Tsukumi's aging rate (percentage aged 65 and over) is 45.0% as of 2020, projected to rise to 57.0% by 2050.
Q.Where does this population data come from?
A.Historical data is sourced from Japan's national census via the e-Stat API (Statistics Bureau of Japan). Future projections are from the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS) "Regional Population Projections 2023".
Q.Is the data up to date?
A.Historical data uses national census results through 2025. Future projections use the IPSS 2023 edition, which is based on the 2020 census.

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