Japan Population Decline Simulator

Hokkaido北海道

Hakodate 函館市

Data last updated:

Hakodate, Hokkaido, Japan has a population of 230,309 (2025 national census). IPSS projections estimate 216,113 by 2030 and 151,567 by 2050 (a decrease of about 39.6% from 2020), with the share of residents aged 65+ rising from 36.0% in 2020 to 47.7%.Sources: Japan Census (Statistics Bureau), IPSS Regional Population Projections (2023)

2025

(Census)

230,309

2030

(Projection)

216,113

▼ -13.9%

2040

(Projection)

182,713

▼ -27.2%

2050

(Projection)

151,567

▼ -39.6%

Change vs. 2020 census

Elderly Rate (65+): 2020 36%→2050 47.7%

Other municipalities in Hokkaido (北海道)

Data Sources

  • Portal Site of Official Statistics of Japan (e-Stat)(https://www.e-stat.go.jp/)
  • National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), Regional Population Projections (2023 ed.)

* This service uses the e-Stat API but its content is not guaranteed by the Japanese government.

Hakodate Population Table (1980–2050)

Population by year: national census results (restated to current municipal boundaries) and IPSS (2023) projections based on the 2020 census.

YearPopulationvs 2020Type
1980345,165▲ +37.5%Census
1985342,540▲ +36.4%Census
1990328,493▲ +30.8%Census
1995318,308▲ +26.8%Census
2000305,311▲ +21.6%Census
2005294,264▲ +17.2%Census
2010279,127▲ +11.2%Census
2015265,979▲ +5.9%Census
2020251,084—Census
2025230,309▼ -8.3%Census
2030216,113▼ -13.9%Projection
2035199,358▼ -20.6%Projection
2040182,713▼ -27.2%Projection
2045166,626▼ -33.6%Projection
2050151,567▼ -39.6%Projection

About Hakodate

Overview

Hakodate (函館市) is a municipality in Hokkaido, Japan, with a population of 230,309 as of 2025.

Population Projection of Hakodate

According to projections by Japan's National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), Hakodate's population is expected to reach 216,113 by 2030 (-13.9%), 182,713 by 2040 (-27.2%), and 151,567 by 2050 (-39.6%). A significant population decline is projected over the next three decades.

Aging Rate of Hakodate

The aging rate (percentage of residents aged 65 and over) is 36.0% as of 2020 and is projected to rise to 47.7% by 2050. Over 40% of residents will be elderly, significantly affecting healthcare and social services needs.

National Comparison

Hakodate's population decline rate exceeds the national average.

National and Prefectural Rank

  • Population decline rate: Ranked #730 out of 1903 municipalities nationwide.
  • Aging rate in 2050: Ranked #700 out of 1903 nationwide.
  • Population size: Ranked #144 out of 1917 nationwide.
  • Related: National rankings / All municipalities in Hokkaido

Earnings in Hokkaido (北海道): Average salary in Hokkaido (北海道) by age, gender and company sizejpsalary / MHLW Basic Survey on Wage Structure

Frequently Asked Questions

Q.What is the current population of Hakodate, Hokkaido?
A.According to the 2025 national census, Hakodate has a population of 230,309.
Q.What is the population of Hakodate in 2026?
A.Hakodate's population in 2026 is estimated at approximately 227,470. This is an interpolated reference value between the 2025 census (230,309) and the IPSS projection for 2030 (216,113).
Q.What is the projected population of Hakodate in the future?
A.According to IPSS projections, Hakodate's population is expected to be 216,113 in 2030, 182,713 in 2040, and 151,567 in 2050.
Q.What is the population decline rate of Hakodate?
A.Over the 30 years from 2020 to 2050, Hakodate's population is projected to change by -39.6%. The 10-year change is -13.9% and the 20-year change is -27.2%.
Q.Why is the population of Hakodate declining?
A.Nationwide, Japan's population decline is driven by natural decrease (deaths exceeding births) and, in regional municipalities, by net out-migration of young people to major metropolitan areas. In Hakodate, the share of residents aged 65+ is projected to rise from 36.0% to 47.7% by 2050, which further accelerates natural decrease.
Q.What is the aging rate of Hakodate?
A.Hakodate's aging rate (percentage aged 65 and over) is 36.0% as of 2020, projected to rise to 47.7% by 2050.
Q.Where does this population data come from?
A.Historical data is sourced from Japan's national census via the e-Stat API (Statistics Bureau of Japan). Future projections are from the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS) "Regional Population Projections 2023".
Q.Is the data up to date?
A.Historical data uses national census results through 2025. Future projections use the IPSS 2023 edition, which is based on the 2020 census.

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