Japan Population Decline Simulator

Hokkaido北海道

Esashi 江差町

Data last updated:

Esashi, Hokkaido, Japan has a population of 6,230 (2025 national census). IPSS projections estimate 5,965 by 2030 and 3,445 by 2050 (a decrease of about 53.6% from 2020), with the share of residents aged 65+ rising from 38.4% in 2020 to 52.2%.Sources: Japan Census (Statistics Bureau), IPSS Regional Population Projections (2023)

2025

(Census)

6,230

2030

(Projection)

5,965

▼ -19.7%

2040

(Projection)

4,613

▼ -37.9%

2050

(Projection)

3,445

▼ -53.6%

Change vs. 2020 census

Elderly Rate (65+): 2020 38.4%→2050 52.2%

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Data Sources

  • Portal Site of Official Statistics of Japan (e-Stat)(https://www.e-stat.go.jp/)
  • National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), Regional Population Projections (2023 ed.)

* This service uses the e-Stat API but its content is not guaranteed by the Japanese government.

Esashi Population Table (1980–2050)

Population by year: national census results (restated to current municipal boundaries) and IPSS (2023) projections based on the 2020 census.

YearPopulationvs 2020Type
198013,930▲ +87.5%Census
198513,313▲ +79.2%Census
199012,234▲ +64.7%Census
199511,301▲ +52.1%Census
200010,959▲ +47.5%Census
200510,131▲ +36.4%Census
20109,004▲ +21.2%Census
20158,248▲ +11.0%Census
20207,428—Census
20256,230▼ -16.1%Census
20305,965▼ -19.7%Projection
20355,261▼ -29.2%Projection
20404,613▼ -37.9%Projection
20454,003▼ -46.1%Projection
20503,445▼ -53.6%Projection

About Esashi

Overview

Esashi (江差町) is a municipality in Hokkaido, Japan, with a population of 6,230 as of 2025.

Population Projection of Esashi

According to projections by Japan's National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), Esashi's population is expected to reach 5,965 by 2030 (-19.7%), 4,613 by 2040 (-37.9%), and 3,445 by 2050 (-53.6%). The town is projected to lose more than half its population over 30 years.

Aging Rate of Esashi

The aging rate (percentage of residents aged 65 and over) is 38.4% as of 2020 and is projected to rise to 52.2% by 2050. More than half of residents will be seniors, placing the town in the "marginal municipality" category.

National Comparison

Esashi is experiencing one of the faster rates of population decline in Japan.

National and Prefectural Rank

  • Population decline rate: Ranked #203 out of 1903 municipalities nationwide.
  • Aging rate in 2050: Ranked #412 out of 1903 nationwide.
  • Population size: Ranked #1511 out of 1917 nationwide.
  • Related: National rankings / All municipalities in Hokkaido

Earnings in Hokkaido (北海道): Average salary in Hokkaido (北海道) by age, gender and company sizejpsalary / MHLW Basic Survey on Wage Structure

Frequently Asked Questions

Q.What is the current population of Esashi, Hokkaido?
A.According to the 2025 national census, Esashi has a population of 6,230.
Q.What is the population of Esashi in 2026?
A.Esashi's population in 2026 is estimated at approximately 6,177. This is an interpolated reference value between the 2025 census (6,230) and the IPSS projection for 2030 (5,965).
Q.What is the projected population of Esashi in the future?
A.According to IPSS projections, Esashi's population is expected to be 5,965 in 2030, 4,613 in 2040, and 3,445 in 2050.
Q.What is the population decline rate of Esashi?
A.Over the 30 years from 2020 to 2050, Esashi's population is projected to change by -53.6%. The 10-year change is -19.7% and the 20-year change is -37.9%.
Q.Why is the population of Esashi declining?
A.Nationwide, Japan's population decline is driven by natural decrease (deaths exceeding births) and, in regional municipalities, by net out-migration of young people to major metropolitan areas. In Esashi, the share of residents aged 65+ is projected to rise from 38.4% to 52.2% by 2050, which further accelerates natural decrease.
Q.What is the aging rate of Esashi?
A.Esashi's aging rate (percentage aged 65 and over) is 38.4% as of 2020, projected to rise to 52.2% by 2050.
Q.Where does this population data come from?
A.Historical data is sourced from Japan's national census via the e-Stat API (Statistics Bureau of Japan). Future projections are from the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS) "Regional Population Projections 2023".
Q.Is the data up to date?
A.Historical data uses national census results through 2025. Future projections use the IPSS 2023 edition, which is based on the 2020 census.

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