Japan Population Decline Simulator

Hokkaido北海道

Shibetsu 標津町

Data last updated:

Shibetsu, Hokkaido, Japan has a population of 4,610 (2025 national census). IPSS projections estimate 4,419 by 2030 and 3,233 by 2050 (a decrease of about 35.6% from 2020), with the share of residents aged 65+ rising from 31.4% in 2020 to 40.2%.Sources: Japan Census (Statistics Bureau), IPSS Regional Population Projections (2023)

2025

(Census)

4,610

2030

(Projection)

4,419

▼ -12.0%

2040

(Projection)

3,807

▼ -24.2%

2050

(Projection)

3,233

▼ -35.6%

Change vs. 2020 census

Elderly Rate (65+): 2020 31.4%→2050 40.2%

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Data Sources

  • Portal Site of Official Statistics of Japan (e-Stat)(https://www.e-stat.go.jp/)
  • National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), Regional Population Projections (2023 ed.)

* This service uses the e-Stat API but its content is not guaranteed by the Japanese government.

Shibetsu Population Table (1980–2050)

Population by year: national census results (restated to current municipal boundaries) and IPSS (2023) projections based on the 2020 census.

YearPopulationvs 2020Type
19807,730▲ +53.9%Census
19857,577▲ +50.8%Census
19907,310▲ +45.5%Census
19957,087▲ +41.1%Census
20006,298▲ +25.4%Census
20056,063▲ +20.7%Census
20105,646▲ +12.4%Census
20155,242▲ +4.4%Census
20205,023—Census
20254,610▼ -8.2%Census
20304,419▼ -12.0%Projection
20354,103▼ -18.3%Projection
20403,807▼ -24.2%Projection
20453,518▼ -30.0%Projection
20503,233▼ -35.6%Projection

About Shibetsu

Overview

Shibetsu (標津町) is a municipality in Hokkaido, Japan, with a population of 4,610 as of 2025.

Population Projection of Shibetsu

According to projections by Japan's National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), Shibetsu's population is expected to reach 4,419 by 2030 (-12.0%), 3,807 by 2040 (-24.2%), and 3,233 by 2050 (-35.6%). A significant population decline is projected over the next three decades.

Aging Rate of Shibetsu

The aging rate (percentage of residents aged 65 and over) is 31.4% as of 2020 and is projected to rise to 40.2% by 2050. Over 40% of residents will be elderly, significantly affecting healthcare and social services needs.

National Comparison

Shibetsu's population decline rate exceeds the national average.

National and Prefectural Rank

  • Population decline rate: Ranked #873 out of 1903 municipalities nationwide.
  • Aging rate in 2050: Ranked #1232 out of 1903 nationwide.
  • Population size: Ranked #1615 out of 1917 nationwide.
  • Related: National rankings / All municipalities in Hokkaido

Earnings in Hokkaido (北海道): Average salary in Hokkaido (北海道) by age, gender and company sizejpsalary / MHLW Basic Survey on Wage Structure

Frequently Asked Questions

Q.What is the current population of Shibetsu, Hokkaido?
A.According to the 2025 national census, Shibetsu has a population of 4,610.
Q.What is the population of Shibetsu in 2026?
A.Shibetsu's population in 2026 is estimated at approximately 4,572. This is an interpolated reference value between the 2025 census (4,610) and the IPSS projection for 2030 (4,419).
Q.What is the projected population of Shibetsu in the future?
A.According to IPSS projections, Shibetsu's population is expected to be 4,419 in 2030, 3,807 in 2040, and 3,233 in 2050.
Q.What is the population decline rate of Shibetsu?
A.Over the 30 years from 2020 to 2050, Shibetsu's population is projected to change by -35.6%. The 10-year change is -12.0% and the 20-year change is -24.2%.
Q.Why is the population of Shibetsu declining?
A.Nationwide, Japan's population decline is driven by natural decrease (deaths exceeding births) and, in regional municipalities, by net out-migration of young people to major metropolitan areas. In Shibetsu, the share of residents aged 65+ is projected to rise from 31.4% to 40.2% by 2050, which further accelerates natural decrease.
Q.What is the aging rate of Shibetsu?
A.Shibetsu's aging rate (percentage aged 65 and over) is 31.4% as of 2020, projected to rise to 40.2% by 2050.
Q.Where does this population data come from?
A.Historical data is sourced from Japan's national census via the e-Stat API (Statistics Bureau of Japan). Future projections are from the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS) "Regional Population Projections 2023".
Q.Is the data up to date?
A.Historical data uses national census results through 2025. Future projections use the IPSS 2023 edition, which is based on the 2020 census.

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