Japan Population Decline Simulator

Tochigi栃木県

Nakagawa 那珂川町

Data last updated:

Nakagawa, Tochigi, Japan has a population of 15,226 (2020 national census). IPSS projections estimate 11,978 by 2030 and 6,986 by 2050 (a decrease of about 54.1% from 2020), with the share of residents aged 65+ rising from 39.7% to 59.4%.Sources: Japan Census (Statistics Bureau), IPSS Regional Population Projections (2023)

2020

(Census)

15,226

2030

(Projection)

11,978

-21.3%

2040

(Projection)

9,393

-38.3%

2050

(Projection)

6,986

-54.1%

Elderly Rate (65+): 2020 39.7%2050 59.4%

Other municipalities in Tochigi (栃木県)

Data Sources

  • Portal Site of Official Statistics of Japan (e-Stat)https://www.e-stat.go.jp/
  • National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), Regional Population Projections (2023 ed.)

* This service uses the e-Stat API but its content is not guaranteed by the Japanese government.

Nakagawa Population Projection Table (2020–2050)

Population by year, based on the national census and IPSS (2023) projections.

YearPopulationvs 2020Type
202015,226Census
202513,371▼ -12.2%Projection
203011,978▼ -21.3%Projection
203510,665▼ -30.0%Projection
20409,393▼ -38.3%Projection
20458,149▼ -46.5%Projection
20506,986▼ -54.1%Projection

About Nakagawa

Overview

Nakagawa (那珂川町) is a municipality in Tochigi, Japan, with a population of 15,226 as of 2020.

Population Projection of Nakagawa

According to projections by Japan's National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), Nakagawa's population is expected to reach 11,978 by 2030 (-21.3%), 9,393 by 2040 (-38.3%), and 6,986 by 2050 (-54.1%). The town is projected to lose more than half its population over 30 years.

Aging Rate of Nakagawa

The aging rate (percentage of residents aged 65 and over) is 39.7% as of 2020 and is projected to rise to 59.4% by 2050. More than half of residents will be seniors, placing the town in the "marginal municipality" category.

National Comparison

Nakagawa is experiencing one of the faster rates of population decline in Japan.

National and Prefectural Rank

  • Population decline rate: Ranked #191 out of 1916 municipalities nationwide.
  • Aging rate in 2050: Ranked #127 out of 1916 nationwide.
  • Population size: Ranked #1215 out of 1916 nationwide.
  • Related: National rankings / All municipalities in Tochigi

Frequently Asked Questions

Q.What is the current population of Nakagawa, Tochigi?
A.According to the 2020 national census, Nakagawa has a population of 15,226.
Q.What is the population of Nakagawa in 2026?
A.Nakagawa's population in 2026 is estimated at approximately 13,092. This is an interpolated reference value between the 2020 census (15,226) and the IPSS projection for 2030 (11,978).
Q.What is the projected population of Nakagawa in the future?
A.According to IPSS projections, Nakagawa's population is expected to be 11,978 in 2030, 9,393 in 2040, and 6,986 in 2050.
Q.What is the population decline rate of Nakagawa?
A.Over the 30 years from 2020 to 2050, Nakagawa's population is projected to change by -54.1%. The 10-year change is -21.3% and the 20-year change is -38.3%.
Q.Why is the population of Nakagawa declining?
A.Nationwide, Japan's population decline is driven by natural decrease (deaths exceeding births) and, in regional municipalities, by net out-migration of young people to major metropolitan areas. In Nakagawa, the share of residents aged 65+ is projected to rise from 39.7% to 59.4% by 2050, which further accelerates natural decrease.
Q.What is the aging rate of Nakagawa?
A.Nakagawa's aging rate (percentage aged 65 and over) is 39.7% as of 2020, projected to rise to 59.4% by 2050.
Q.Where does this population data come from?
A.Historical data is sourced from Japan's national census via the e-Stat API (Statistics Bureau of Japan). Future projections are from the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS) "Regional Population Projections 2023".
Q.Is the data up to date?
A.Historical data uses the 2020 national census results. Future projections use the IPSS 2023 edition. Data will be updated as new census results become available.

Similar-Sized Municipalities in Tochigi

Municipalities with Similar Trends

Share this page