Japan Population Decline Simulator

Nagano長野県

Ogawa 小川村

Data last updated:

Ogawa, Nagano, Japan has a population of 2,001 (2025 national census). IPSS projections estimate 1,700 by 2030 and 991 by 2050 (a decrease of about 55.3% from 2020), with the share of residents aged 65+ rising from 45.9% in 2020 to 57.3%.Sources: Japan Census (Statistics Bureau), IPSS Regional Population Projections (2023)

2025

(Census)

2,001

2030

(Projection)

1,700

▼ -23.3%

2040

(Projection)

1,309

▼ -40.9%

2050

(Projection)

991

▼ -55.3%

Change vs. 2020 census

Elderly Rate (65+): 2020 45.9%→2050 57.3%

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Other municipalities in Nagano (長野県)

Data Sources

  • Portal Site of Official Statistics of Japan (e-Stat)(https://www.e-stat.go.jp/)
  • National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), Regional Population Projections (2023 ed.)

* This service uses the e-Stat API but its content is not guaranteed by the Japanese government.

Ogawa Population Table (1980–2050)

Population by year: national census results (restated to current municipal boundaries) and IPSS (2023) projections based on the 2020 census.

YearPopulationvs 2020Type
19805,132▲ +131.7%Census
19854,560▲ +105.9%Census
19904,133▲ +86.6%Census
19953,888▲ +75.5%Census
20003,620▲ +63.4%Census
20053,371▲ +52.2%Census
20103,041▲ +37.3%Census
20152,665▲ +20.3%Census
20202,215—Census
20252,001▼ -9.7%Census
20301,700▼ -23.3%Projection
20351,496▼ -32.5%Projection
20401,309▼ -40.9%Projection
20451,141▼ -48.5%Projection
2050991▼ -55.3%Projection

About Ogawa

Overview

Ogawa (小川村) is a municipality in Nagano, Japan, with a population of 2,001 as of 2025.

Population Projection of Ogawa

According to projections by Japan's National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), Ogawa's population is expected to reach 1,700 by 2030 (-23.3%), 1,309 by 2040 (-40.9%), and 991 by 2050 (-55.3%). The town is projected to lose more than half its population over 30 years.

Aging Rate of Ogawa

The aging rate (percentage of residents aged 65 and over) is 45.9% as of 2020 and is projected to rise to 57.3% by 2050. More than half of residents will be seniors, placing the town in the "marginal municipality" category.

National Comparison

Ogawa is experiencing one of the faster rates of population decline in Japan.

National and Prefectural Rank

  • Population decline rate: Ranked #163 out of 1903 municipalities nationwide.
  • Aging rate in 2050: Ranked #188 out of 1903 nationwide.
  • Population size: Ranked #1810 out of 1917 nationwide.
  • Related: National rankings / All municipalities in Nagano

Earnings in Nagano (長野県): Average salary in Nagano (長野県) by age, gender and company sizejpsalary / MHLW Basic Survey on Wage Structure

Frequently Asked Questions

Q.What is the current population of Ogawa, Nagano?
A.According to the 2025 national census, Ogawa has a population of 2,001.
Q.What is the population of Ogawa in 2026?
A.Ogawa's population in 2026 is estimated at approximately 1,941. This is an interpolated reference value between the 2025 census (2,001) and the IPSS projection for 2030 (1,700).
Q.What is the projected population of Ogawa in the future?
A.According to IPSS projections, Ogawa's population is expected to be 1,700 in 2030, 1,309 in 2040, and 991 in 2050.
Q.What is the population decline rate of Ogawa?
A.Over the 30 years from 2020 to 2050, Ogawa's population is projected to change by -55.3%. The 10-year change is -23.3% and the 20-year change is -40.9%.
Q.Why is the population of Ogawa declining?
A.Nationwide, Japan's population decline is driven by natural decrease (deaths exceeding births) and, in regional municipalities, by net out-migration of young people to major metropolitan areas. In Ogawa, the share of residents aged 65+ is projected to rise from 45.9% to 57.3% by 2050, which further accelerates natural decrease.
Q.What is the aging rate of Ogawa?
A.Ogawa's aging rate (percentage aged 65 and over) is 45.9% as of 2020, projected to rise to 57.3% by 2050.
Q.Where does this population data come from?
A.Historical data is sourced from Japan's national census via the e-Stat API (Statistics Bureau of Japan). Future projections are from the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS) "Regional Population Projections 2023".
Q.Is the data up to date?
A.Historical data uses national census results through 2025. Future projections use the IPSS 2023 edition, which is based on the 2020 census.

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