Japan Population Decline Simulator

Nagano長野県

Sakae 栄村

Data last updated:

Sakae, Nagano, Japan has a population of 1,466 (2025 national census). IPSS projections estimate 1,244 by 2030 and 634 by 2050 (a decrease of about 61.8% from 2020), with the share of residents aged 65+ rising from 54.4% in 2020 to 66.9%.Sources: Japan Census (Statistics Bureau), IPSS Regional Population Projections (2023)

2025

(Census)

1,466

2030

(Projection)

1,244

▼ -25.1%

2040

(Projection)

913

▼ -45.0%

2050

(Projection)

634

▼ -61.8%

Change vs. 2020 census

Elderly Rate (65+): 2020 54.4%→2050 66.9%

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Other municipalities in Nagano (長野県)

Data Sources

  • Portal Site of Official Statistics of Japan (e-Stat)(https://www.e-stat.go.jp/)
  • National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), Regional Population Projections (2023 ed.)

* This service uses the e-Stat API but its content is not guaranteed by the Japanese government.

Sakae Population Table (1980–2050)

Population by year: national census results (restated to current municipal boundaries) and IPSS (2023) projections based on the 2020 census.

YearPopulationvs 2020Type
19803,502▲ +111.0%Census
19853,284▲ +97.8%Census
19903,053▲ +83.9%Census
19952,896▲ +74.5%Census
20002,638▲ +58.9%Census
20052,488▲ +49.9%Census
20102,215▲ +33.4%Census
20151,953▲ +17.7%Census
20201,660—Census
20251,466▼ -11.7%Census
20301,244▼ -25.1%Projection
20351,069▼ -35.6%Projection
2040913▼ -45.0%Projection
2045768▼ -53.7%Projection
2050634▼ -61.8%Projection

About Sakae

Overview

Sakae (栄村) is a municipality in Nagano, Japan, with a population of 1,466 as of 2025.

Population Projection of Sakae

According to projections by Japan's National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), Sakae's population is expected to reach 1,244 by 2030 (-25.1%), 913 by 2040 (-45.0%), and 634 by 2050 (-61.8%). The town is projected to lose more than half its population over 30 years.

Aging Rate of Sakae

The aging rate (percentage of residents aged 65 and over) is 54.4% as of 2020 and is projected to rise to 66.9% by 2050. More than half of residents will be seniors, placing the town in the "marginal municipality" category.

National Comparison

Sakae is among the most rapidly declining municipalities in Japan.

National and Prefectural Rank

  • Population decline rate: Ranked #51 out of 1903 municipalities nationwide.
  • Aging rate in 2050: Ranked #20 out of 1903 nationwide.
  • Population size: Ranked #1843 out of 1917 nationwide.
  • Related: National rankings / All municipalities in Nagano

Earnings in Nagano (長野県): Average salary in Nagano (長野県) by age, gender and company sizejpsalary / MHLW Basic Survey on Wage Structure

Frequently Asked Questions

Q.What is the current population of Sakae, Nagano?
A.According to the 2025 national census, Sakae has a population of 1,466.
Q.What is the population of Sakae in 2026?
A.Sakae's population in 2026 is estimated at approximately 1,422. This is an interpolated reference value between the 2025 census (1,466) and the IPSS projection for 2030 (1,244).
Q.What is the projected population of Sakae in the future?
A.According to IPSS projections, Sakae's population is expected to be 1,244 in 2030, 913 in 2040, and 634 in 2050.
Q.What is the population decline rate of Sakae?
A.Over the 30 years from 2020 to 2050, Sakae's population is projected to change by -61.8%. The 10-year change is -25.1% and the 20-year change is -45.0%.
Q.Why is the population of Sakae declining?
A.Nationwide, Japan's population decline is driven by natural decrease (deaths exceeding births) and, in regional municipalities, by net out-migration of young people to major metropolitan areas. In Sakae, the share of residents aged 65+ is projected to rise from 54.4% to 66.9% by 2050, which further accelerates natural decrease.
Q.What is the aging rate of Sakae?
A.Sakae's aging rate (percentage aged 65 and over) is 54.4% as of 2020, projected to rise to 66.9% by 2050.
Q.Where does this population data come from?
A.Historical data is sourced from Japan's national census via the e-Stat API (Statistics Bureau of Japan). Future projections are from the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS) "Regional Population Projections 2023".
Q.Is the data up to date?
A.Historical data uses national census results through 2025. Future projections use the IPSS 2023 edition, which is based on the 2020 census.

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