Japan Population Decline Simulator

Hokkaido北海道

Nayoro 名寄市

Data last updated:

Nayoro, Hokkaido, Japan has a population of 24,356 (2025 national census). IPSS projections estimate 23,576 by 2030 and 17,272 by 2050 (a decrease of about 36.7% from 2020), with the share of residents aged 65+ rising from 32.2% in 2020 to 38.2%.Sources: Japan Census (Statistics Bureau), IPSS Regional Population Projections (2023)

2025

(Census)

24,356

2030

(Projection)

23,576

▼ -13.6%

2040

(Projection)

20,372

▼ -25.3%

2050

(Projection)

17,272

▼ -36.7%

Change vs. 2020 census

Elderly Rate (65+): 2020 32.2%→2050 38.2%

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Data Sources

  • Portal Site of Official Statistics of Japan (e-Stat)(https://www.e-stat.go.jp/)
  • National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), Regional Population Projections (2023 ed.)

* This service uses the e-Stat API but its content is not guaranteed by the Japanese government.

Nayoro Population Table (1980–2050)

Population by year: national census results (restated to current municipal boundaries) and IPSS (2023) projections based on the 2020 census.

YearPopulationvs 2020Type
198042,222▲ +54.8%Census
198541,069▲ +50.5%Census
199037,194▲ +36.3%Census
199534,664▲ +27.1%Census
200033,328▲ +22.2%Census
200531,628▲ +15.9%Census
201030,591▲ +12.1%Census
201529,048▲ +6.5%Census
202027,282—Census
202524,356▼ -10.7%Census
203023,576▼ -13.6%Projection
203521,945▼ -19.6%Projection
204020,372▼ -25.3%Projection
204518,785▼ -31.1%Projection
205017,272▼ -36.7%Projection

About Nayoro

Overview

Nayoro (名寄市) is a municipality in Hokkaido, Japan, with a population of 24,356 as of 2025.

Population Projection of Nayoro

According to projections by Japan's National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), Nayoro's population is expected to reach 23,576 by 2030 (-13.6%), 20,372 by 2040 (-25.3%), and 17,272 by 2050 (-36.7%). A significant population decline is projected over the next three decades.

Aging Rate of Nayoro

The aging rate (percentage of residents aged 65 and over) is 32.2% as of 2020 and is projected to rise to 38.2% by 2050. The aging rate will remain below the most severe Japanese averages.

National Comparison

Nayoro's population decline rate exceeds the national average.

National and Prefectural Rank

  • Population decline rate: Ranked #829 out of 1903 municipalities nationwide.
  • Aging rate in 2050: Ranked #1390 out of 1903 nationwide.
  • Population size: Ranked #1001 out of 1917 nationwide.
  • Related: National rankings / All municipalities in Hokkaido

Earnings in Hokkaido (北海道): Average salary in Hokkaido (北海道) by age, gender and company sizejpsalary / MHLW Basic Survey on Wage Structure

Frequently Asked Questions

Q.What is the current population of Nayoro, Hokkaido?
A.According to the 2025 national census, Nayoro has a population of 24,356.
Q.What is the population of Nayoro in 2026?
A.Nayoro's population in 2026 is estimated at approximately 24,200. This is an interpolated reference value between the 2025 census (24,356) and the IPSS projection for 2030 (23,576).
Q.What is the projected population of Nayoro in the future?
A.According to IPSS projections, Nayoro's population is expected to be 23,576 in 2030, 20,372 in 2040, and 17,272 in 2050.
Q.What is the population decline rate of Nayoro?
A.Over the 30 years from 2020 to 2050, Nayoro's population is projected to change by -36.7%. The 10-year change is -13.6% and the 20-year change is -25.3%.
Q.Why is the population of Nayoro declining?
A.Nationwide, Japan's population decline is driven by natural decrease (deaths exceeding births) and, in regional municipalities, by net out-migration of young people to major metropolitan areas. In Nayoro, the share of residents aged 65+ is projected to rise from 32.2% to 38.2% by 2050, which further accelerates natural decrease.
Q.What is the aging rate of Nayoro?
A.Nayoro's aging rate (percentage aged 65 and over) is 32.2% as of 2020, projected to rise to 38.2% by 2050.
Q.Where does this population data come from?
A.Historical data is sourced from Japan's national census via the e-Stat API (Statistics Bureau of Japan). Future projections are from the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS) "Regional Population Projections 2023".
Q.Is the data up to date?
A.Historical data uses national census results through 2025. Future projections use the IPSS 2023 edition, which is based on the 2020 census.

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