Japan Population Decline Simulator

Hokkaido北海道

Nakagawa 中川町

Data last updated:

Nakagawa, Hokkaido, Japan has a population of 1,230 (2025 national census). IPSS projections estimate 1,209 by 2030 and 766 by 2050 (a decrease of about 49.9% from 2020), with the share of residents aged 65+ rising from 39.1% in 2020 to 40.2%.Sources: Japan Census (Statistics Bureau), IPSS Regional Population Projections (2023)

2025

(Census)

1,230

2030

(Projection)

1,209

▼ -20.9%

2040

(Projection)

963

▼ -37.0%

2050

(Projection)

766

▼ -49.9%

Change vs. 2020 census

Elderly Rate (65+): 2020 39.1%→2050 40.2%

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Data Sources

  • Portal Site of Official Statistics of Japan (e-Stat)(https://www.e-stat.go.jp/)
  • National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), Regional Population Projections (2023 ed.)

* This service uses the e-Stat API but its content is not guaranteed by the Japanese government.

Nakagawa Population Table (1980–2050)

Population by year: national census results (restated to current municipal boundaries) and IPSS (2023) projections based on the 2020 census.

YearPopulationvs 2020Type
19803,559▲ +132.9%Census
19853,235▲ +111.7%Census
19902,788▲ +82.5%Census
19952,602▲ +70.3%Census
20002,464▲ +61.3%Census
20052,106▲ +37.8%Census
20101,907▲ +24.8%Census
20151,767▲ +15.6%Census
20201,528—Census
20251,230▼ -19.5%Census
20301,209▼ -20.9%Projection
20351,077▼ -29.5%Projection
2040963▼ -37.0%Projection
2045864▼ -43.5%Projection
2050766▼ -49.9%Projection

About Nakagawa

Overview

Nakagawa (中川町) is a municipality in Hokkaido, Japan, with a population of 1,230 as of 2025.

Population Projection of Nakagawa

According to projections by Japan's National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), Nakagawa's population is expected to reach 1,209 by 2030 (-20.9%), 963 by 2040 (-37.0%), and 766 by 2050 (-49.9%). A significant population decline is projected over the next three decades.

Aging Rate of Nakagawa

The aging rate (percentage of residents aged 65 and over) is 39.1% as of 2020 and is projected to rise to 40.2% by 2050. Over 40% of residents will be elderly, significantly affecting healthcare and social services needs.

National Comparison

Nakagawa is experiencing one of the faster rates of population decline in Japan.

National and Prefectural Rank

  • Population decline rate: Ranked #348 out of 1903 municipalities nationwide.
  • Aging rate in 2050: Ranked #1230 out of 1903 nationwide.
  • Population size: Ranked #1856 out of 1917 nationwide.
  • Related: National rankings / All municipalities in Hokkaido

Earnings in Hokkaido (北海道): Average salary in Hokkaido (北海道) by age, gender and company sizejpsalary / MHLW Basic Survey on Wage Structure

Frequently Asked Questions

Q.What is the current population of Nakagawa, Hokkaido?
A.According to the 2025 national census, Nakagawa has a population of 1,230.
Q.What is the population of Nakagawa in 2026?
A.Nakagawa's population in 2026 is estimated at approximately 1,226. This is an interpolated reference value between the 2025 census (1,230) and the IPSS projection for 2030 (1,209).
Q.What is the projected population of Nakagawa in the future?
A.According to IPSS projections, Nakagawa's population is expected to be 1,209 in 2030, 963 in 2040, and 766 in 2050.
Q.What is the population decline rate of Nakagawa?
A.Over the 30 years from 2020 to 2050, Nakagawa's population is projected to change by -49.9%. The 10-year change is -20.9% and the 20-year change is -37.0%.
Q.Why is the population of Nakagawa declining?
A.Nationwide, Japan's population decline is driven by natural decrease (deaths exceeding births) and, in regional municipalities, by net out-migration of young people to major metropolitan areas. In Nakagawa, the share of residents aged 65+ is projected to rise from 39.1% to 40.2% by 2050, which further accelerates natural decrease.
Q.What is the aging rate of Nakagawa?
A.Nakagawa's aging rate (percentage aged 65 and over) is 39.1% as of 2020, projected to rise to 40.2% by 2050.
Q.Where does this population data come from?
A.Historical data is sourced from Japan's national census via the e-Stat API (Statistics Bureau of Japan). Future projections are from the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS) "Regional Population Projections 2023".
Q.Is the data up to date?
A.Historical data uses national census results through 2025. Future projections use the IPSS 2023 edition, which is based on the 2020 census.

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