Japan Population Decline Simulator

Hokkaido北海道

Kamoenai 神恵内村

Data last updated:

Kamoenai, Hokkaido, Japan has a population of 802 (2025 national census). IPSS projections estimate 645 by 2030 and 325 by 2050 (a decrease of about 62.6% from 2020), with the share of residents aged 65+ rising from 51.5% in 2020 to 66.5%.Sources: Japan Census (Statistics Bureau), IPSS Regional Population Projections (2023)

2025

(Census)

802

2030

(Projection)

645

▼ -25.9%

2040

(Projection)

477

▼ -45.2%

2050

(Projection)

325

▼ -62.6%

Change vs. 2020 census

Elderly Rate (65+): 2020 51.5%→2050 66.5%

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Data Sources

  • Portal Site of Official Statistics of Japan (e-Stat)(https://www.e-stat.go.jp/)
  • National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), Regional Population Projections (2023 ed.)

* This service uses the e-Stat API but its content is not guaranteed by the Japanese government.

Kamoenai Population Table (1980–2050)

Population by year: national census results (restated to current municipal boundaries) and IPSS (2023) projections based on the 2020 census.

YearPopulationvs 2020Type
19802,014▲ +131.5%Census
19851,797▲ +106.6%Census
19901,596▲ +83.4%Census
19951,481▲ +70.2%Census
20001,325▲ +52.3%Census
20051,319▲ +51.6%Census
20101,122▲ +29.0%Census
20151,004▲ +15.4%Census
2020870—Census
2025802▼ -7.8%Census
2030645▼ -25.9%Projection
2035558▼ -35.9%Projection
2040477▼ -45.2%Projection
2045398▼ -54.3%Projection
2050325▼ -62.6%Projection

About Kamoenai

Overview

Kamoenai (神恵内村) is a municipality in Hokkaido, Japan, with a population of 802 as of 2025.

Population Projection of Kamoenai

According to projections by Japan's National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), Kamoenai's population is expected to reach 645 by 2030 (-25.9%), 477 by 2040 (-45.2%), and 325 by 2050 (-62.6%). The town is projected to lose more than half its population over 30 years.

Aging Rate of Kamoenai

The aging rate (percentage of residents aged 65 and over) is 51.5% as of 2020 and is projected to rise to 66.5% by 2050. More than half of residents will be seniors, placing the town in the "marginal municipality" category.

National Comparison

Kamoenai is among the most rapidly declining municipalities in Japan.

National and Prefectural Rank

  • Population decline rate: Ranked #38 out of 1903 municipalities nationwide.
  • Aging rate in 2050: Ranked #22 out of 1903 nationwide.
  • Population size: Ranked #1887 out of 1917 nationwide.
  • Related: National rankings / All municipalities in Hokkaido

Earnings in Hokkaido (北海道): Average salary in Hokkaido (北海道) by age, gender and company sizejpsalary / MHLW Basic Survey on Wage Structure

Frequently Asked Questions

Q.What is the current population of Kamoenai, Hokkaido?
A.According to the 2025 national census, Kamoenai has a population of 802.
Q.What is the population of Kamoenai in 2026?
A.Kamoenai's population in 2026 is estimated at approximately 771. This is an interpolated reference value between the 2025 census (802) and the IPSS projection for 2030 (645).
Q.What is the projected population of Kamoenai in the future?
A.According to IPSS projections, Kamoenai's population is expected to be 645 in 2030, 477 in 2040, and 325 in 2050.
Q.What is the population decline rate of Kamoenai?
A.Over the 30 years from 2020 to 2050, Kamoenai's population is projected to change by -62.6%. The 10-year change is -25.9% and the 20-year change is -45.2%.
Q.Why is the population of Kamoenai declining?
A.Nationwide, Japan's population decline is driven by natural decrease (deaths exceeding births) and, in regional municipalities, by net out-migration of young people to major metropolitan areas. In Kamoenai, the share of residents aged 65+ is projected to rise from 51.5% to 66.5% by 2050, which further accelerates natural decrease.
Q.What is the aging rate of Kamoenai?
A.Kamoenai's aging rate (percentage aged 65 and over) is 51.5% as of 2020, projected to rise to 66.5% by 2050.
Q.Where does this population data come from?
A.Historical data is sourced from Japan's national census via the e-Stat API (Statistics Bureau of Japan). Future projections are from the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS) "Regional Population Projections 2023".
Q.Is the data up to date?
A.Historical data uses national census results through 2025. Future projections use the IPSS 2023 edition, which is based on the 2020 census.

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