Japan Population Decline Simulator

Nara奈良県

Nosegawa 野迫川村

Data last updated:

Nosegawa, Nara, Japan has a population of 289 (2025 national census). IPSS projections estimate 224 by 2030 and 98 by 2050 (a decrease of about 72.5% from 2020), with the share of residents aged 65+ rising from 50.7% in 2020 to 54.1%.Sources: Japan Census (Statistics Bureau), IPSS Regional Population Projections (2023)

2025

(Census)

289

2030

(Projection)

224

▼ -37.3%

2040

(Projection)

149

▼ -58.3%

2050

(Projection)

98

▼ -72.5%

Change vs. 2020 census

Elderly Rate (65+): 2020 50.7%→2050 54.1%

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Other municipalities in Nara (奈良県)

Data Sources

  • Portal Site of Official Statistics of Japan (e-Stat)(https://www.e-stat.go.jp/)
  • National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), Regional Population Projections (2023 ed.)

* This service uses the e-Stat API but its content is not guaranteed by the Japanese government.

Nosegawa Population Table (1980–2050)

Population by year: national census results (restated to current municipal boundaries) and IPSS (2023) projections based on the 2020 census.

YearPopulationvs 2020Type
19801,121▲ +214.0%Census
19851,213▲ +239.8%Census
1990926▲ +159.4%Census
1995875▲ +145.1%Census
2000783▲ +119.3%Census
2005743▲ +108.1%Census
2010524▲ +46.8%Census
2015449▲ +25.8%Census
2020357—Census
2025289▼ -19.0%Census
2030224▼ -37.3%Projection
2035180▼ -49.6%Projection
2040149▼ -58.3%Projection
2045120▼ -66.4%Projection
205098▼ -72.5%Projection

About Nosegawa

Overview

Nosegawa (野迫川村) is a municipality in Nara, Japan, with a population of 289 as of 2025.

Population Projection of Nosegawa

According to projections by Japan's National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), Nosegawa's population is expected to reach 224 by 2030 (-37.3%), 149 by 2040 (-58.3%), and 98 by 2050 (-72.5%). The town is projected to lose more than half its population over 30 years.

Aging Rate of Nosegawa

The aging rate (percentage of residents aged 65 and over) is 50.7% as of 2020 and is projected to rise to 54.1% by 2050. More than half of residents will be seniors, placing the town in the "marginal municipality" category.

National Comparison

Nosegawa is among the most rapidly declining municipalities in Japan.

National and Prefectural Rank

  • Population decline rate: Ranked #3 out of 1903 municipalities nationwide.
  • Aging rate in 2050: Ranked #319 out of 1903 nationwide.
  • Population size: Ranked #1914 out of 1917 nationwide.
  • Related: National rankings / All municipalities in Nara

Earnings in Nara (奈良県): Average salary in Nara (奈良県) by age, gender and company sizejpsalary / MHLW Basic Survey on Wage Structure

Frequently Asked Questions

Q.What is the current population of Nosegawa, Nara?
A.According to the 2025 national census, Nosegawa has a population of 289.
Q.What is the population of Nosegawa in 2026?
A.Nosegawa's population in 2026 is estimated at approximately 276. This is an interpolated reference value between the 2025 census (289) and the IPSS projection for 2030 (224).
Q.What is the projected population of Nosegawa in the future?
A.According to IPSS projections, Nosegawa's population is expected to be 224 in 2030, 149 in 2040, and 98 in 2050.
Q.What is the population decline rate of Nosegawa?
A.Over the 30 years from 2020 to 2050, Nosegawa's population is projected to change by -72.5%. The 10-year change is -37.3% and the 20-year change is -58.3%.
Q.Why is the population of Nosegawa declining?
A.Nationwide, Japan's population decline is driven by natural decrease (deaths exceeding births) and, in regional municipalities, by net out-migration of young people to major metropolitan areas. In Nosegawa, the share of residents aged 65+ is projected to rise from 50.7% to 54.1% by 2050, which further accelerates natural decrease.
Q.What is the aging rate of Nosegawa?
A.Nosegawa's aging rate (percentage aged 65 and over) is 50.7% as of 2020, projected to rise to 54.1% by 2050.
Q.Where does this population data come from?
A.Historical data is sourced from Japan's national census via the e-Stat API (Statistics Bureau of Japan). Future projections are from the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS) "Regional Population Projections 2023".
Q.Is the data up to date?
A.Historical data uses national census results through 2025. Future projections use the IPSS 2023 edition, which is based on the 2020 census.

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