Japan Population Decline Simulator

Hokkaido北海道

Shiraoi 白老町

Data last updated:

Shiraoi, Hokkaido, Japan has a population of 14,564 (2025 national census). IPSS projections estimate 13,157 by 2030 and 7,706 by 2050 (a decrease of about 52.5% from 2020), with the share of residents aged 65+ rising from 45.9% in 2020 to 57.2%.Sources: Japan Census (Statistics Bureau), IPSS Regional Population Projections (2023)

2025

(Census)

14,564

2030

(Projection)

13,157

▼ -18.8%

2040

(Projection)

10,210

▼ -37.0%

2050

(Projection)

7,706

▼ -52.5%

Change vs. 2020 census

Elderly Rate (65+): 2020 45.9%→2050 57.2%

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Data Sources

  • Portal Site of Official Statistics of Japan (e-Stat)(https://www.e-stat.go.jp/)
  • National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), Regional Population Projections (2023 ed.)

* This service uses the e-Stat API but its content is not guaranteed by the Japanese government.

Shiraoi Population Table (1980–2050)

Population by year: national census results (restated to current municipal boundaries) and IPSS (2023) projections based on the 2020 census.

YearPopulationvs 2020Type
198024,168▲ +49.1%Census
198524,353▲ +50.2%Census
199023,229▲ +43.3%Census
199522,414▲ +38.3%Census
200021,662▲ +33.6%Census
200520,748▲ +28.0%Census
201019,376▲ +19.5%Census
201517,740▲ +9.4%Census
202016,212—Census
202514,564▼ -10.2%Census
203013,157▼ -18.8%Projection
203511,653▼ -28.1%Projection
204010,210▼ -37.0%Projection
20458,884▼ -45.2%Projection
20507,706▼ -52.5%Projection

About Shiraoi

Overview

Shiraoi (白老町) is a municipality in Hokkaido, Japan, with a population of 14,564 as of 2025.

Population Projection of Shiraoi

According to projections by Japan's National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), Shiraoi's population is expected to reach 13,157 by 2030 (-18.8%), 10,210 by 2040 (-37.0%), and 7,706 by 2050 (-52.5%). The town is projected to lose more than half its population over 30 years.

Aging Rate of Shiraoi

The aging rate (percentage of residents aged 65 and over) is 45.9% as of 2020 and is projected to rise to 57.2% by 2050. More than half of residents will be seniors, placing the town in the "marginal municipality" category.

National Comparison

Shiraoi is experiencing one of the faster rates of population decline in Japan.

National and Prefectural Rank

  • Population decline rate: Ranked #246 out of 1903 municipalities nationwide.
  • Aging rate in 2050: Ranked #190 out of 1903 nationwide.
  • Population size: Ranked #1195 out of 1917 nationwide.
  • Related: National rankings / All municipalities in Hokkaido

Earnings in Hokkaido (北海道): Average salary in Hokkaido (北海道) by age, gender and company sizejpsalary / MHLW Basic Survey on Wage Structure

Frequently Asked Questions

Q.What is the current population of Shiraoi, Hokkaido?
A.According to the 2025 national census, Shiraoi has a population of 14,564.
Q.What is the population of Shiraoi in 2026?
A.Shiraoi's population in 2026 is estimated at approximately 14,283. This is an interpolated reference value between the 2025 census (14,564) and the IPSS projection for 2030 (13,157).
Q.What is the projected population of Shiraoi in the future?
A.According to IPSS projections, Shiraoi's population is expected to be 13,157 in 2030, 10,210 in 2040, and 7,706 in 2050.
Q.What is the population decline rate of Shiraoi?
A.Over the 30 years from 2020 to 2050, Shiraoi's population is projected to change by -52.5%. The 10-year change is -18.8% and the 20-year change is -37.0%.
Q.Why is the population of Shiraoi declining?
A.Nationwide, Japan's population decline is driven by natural decrease (deaths exceeding births) and, in regional municipalities, by net out-migration of young people to major metropolitan areas. In Shiraoi, the share of residents aged 65+ is projected to rise from 45.9% to 57.2% by 2050, which further accelerates natural decrease.
Q.What is the aging rate of Shiraoi?
A.Shiraoi's aging rate (percentage aged 65 and over) is 45.9% as of 2020, projected to rise to 57.2% by 2050.
Q.Where does this population data come from?
A.Historical data is sourced from Japan's national census via the e-Stat API (Statistics Bureau of Japan). Future projections are from the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS) "Regional Population Projections 2023".
Q.Is the data up to date?
A.Historical data uses national census results through 2025. Future projections use the IPSS 2023 edition, which is based on the 2020 census.

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